The National Football League season opens Thursday, with defending Super Bowl champion Baltimore taking on this year's favorite, the Denver Broncos. With elite quarterback Peyton Manning at the helm, the Broncos at press time were 7:2 to win the Super Bowl this year.
The team with the next best odds? The 49ers, who came within 5 yards of a thrilling comeback win in Super Bowl XLVII in February.
And this may surprise you - San Francisco's division rivals, the Seattle Seahawks, are also 5:1. The Seahawks opened in January at 10:1 at MGM Resorts and have dropped to 5:1, showing bettors like their chances.
All three teams - Denver, the 49ers and Seattle - had strong campaigns but "disappointing ends to their seasons, and people expect them to build on that and springboard into the regular season," said Jay Rood, MGM's vice president of race and sports. Bettors believe these teams will "put a better end to their story this season."
Rood says Sunday's matchup between the 49ers and the Green Bay Packers "could be the most critical Week 1 game" and be "very telling as far as the playoffs." If San Francisco loses at home, "it could come back to haunt them come playoff time."
San Francisco opened as a 4.5-point favorite for Sunday's game, but more money has been bet on Green Bay, so the spread moved down to 4 points at press time.
The Raiders aren't in the conversation for a Super Bowl title - they opened at 50:1 and MGM's odds have risen to 100:1. Oakland opens on the road against the Indianapolis Colts, who went 11-5 last year under rookie quarterback Andrew Luck after winning just two games the season before.
The Raiders opened as 7-point underdogs; by press time the spread was 10 points.
There's a lesson here: If you're in Nevada or anywhere else where sports betting is legal - it's not in California - bet quickly if you feel strongly about a game and think you'll be ahead of the crowd. If you want to bet against the Raiders, it'd be much better to give 7 points than 8.5 or 10.
Of course no bet is a sure thing. "It's still the NFL - even the worst teams usually win three or four games and stay competitive in most games," Rood said.
And how about Kansas City, which could be a team on the rise with former 49er Alex Smith at quarterback? The Chiefs open on the road (at Jacksonville), but are favored. At 50:1 the Chiefs are not likely Super Bowl contenders, "but they could really click," Rood said. "They could be this year's Indianapolis Colts."
Michael Shapiro is a freelance writer and author of "A Sense of Place." E-mail: 96hours@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @shapirowrites
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