Don't fear poker risks - evaluate them

"I can't believe you called," said my opponent shaking his head. "I just can't believe you called."

We were playing Texas Hold'em at the Rio in Las Vegas during the World Series of Poker. But this wasn't a tournament - it was a cash game in the hotel's small poker room off the slot-filled lobby. I had the jack and nine of hearts and bet $15 pre-flop. Three players called. When three hearts fell on the flop (the king and two low cards), I'd made my flush. But I wanted to end the hand quickly in case anyone had a higher heart. I didn't want an opponent to top me if a heart dropped on the turn or river.

So I bet $100. Two players folded, one took me all in and had me covered. I'd started the hand with just over $450 and had about $350 in chips left in front of me. I considered the possibilities:

-- My opponent has the ace or queen of hearts and another heart for a better flush. Unlikely but a scary possibility.

-- He has two hearts but neither is as high as my jack so he's trailing me. If he has this, he'll want to end the hand before another heart falls, thinking I may have one high heart. Quite possible, but based on his agitated body language and pre-flop play, not likely.

-- He has a high heart, probably the ace, and has two chances to hit a high or nut flush. More likely.

-- He's bluffing and has nothing. Remotely possible.

I have a friend who thinks poker is all luck, but this is where it becomes a skill game. My gut tells me he's either got the nut flush draw or has hit a lower flush than mine. If his flush is lower, I'll win. If he's on a draw with the ace, I'm about a 2:1 favorite. I later checked CardPlayer.com's poker odds calculator (http://bit.ly/RAvLe) and found my odds of winning were 71 percent.

So I call. He shows the ace of hearts and a blank. Neither the turn nor river is a heart; I pull in a pot in excess of $900. I ask him why he's so incredulous that I called. "You risked your whole stack!" he blurts out.

I did, but it was a risk that made sense. A few years ago when I was a risk-averse novice, I probably would have folded. But now I don't fear risks. I evaluate them. And this is a good way to approach the game. If you believe the odds are in your favor, go for the big win, because there's nothing like paying for your trip to Vegas by taking a hefty pot at the poker table.

Michael Shapiro is a freelance writer and author of "A Sense of Place." E-mail: 96hours@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @shapirowrites

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