The college football season kicks off Thursday and shifts into high gear this weekend, but with so many teams vying for the Bowl Championship Series title, it can be hard to figure out which have the best shot at the championship.
That's where the odds come in - even if you don't want to bet on college games, the odds that Vegas and online booking sites place on teams can give you a sense of who's at the front of the pack.
The Wynn/Encore sports book has Alabama as the favorite at 11:5 to win the BCS title game Jan. 6 in Pasadena. Ohio State is second at 5:1; Oregon is third at 8:1.
Stanford opened at 30:1, but is now 14:1, showing that lots of bettors like the team. "They're a good team, a solid team," says Johnny Avello, Wynn's director of race and sports operations, "but maybe a win or two away from having a shot at the title."
Wynn lists Cal at 250:1. "Forget it," Avello says.
The online betting site Bovada.lv has the over/under on Cal at four games, meaning the site expects the Bears to win only a third of their regular season games under new coach Sonny Dykes. The over/under on Stanford is 9.5 games, meaning that if you bet on the over and the Cardinal win 10 or more of their 12 contests, you win.
At Wynn's sportsbook, Stanford is 2:1 to win the Pac-12 conference; the favorite is Oregon at 6:5.
College football futures are different than NFL futures because so few NCAA teams have a legitimate title shot, Avello says.
In the NFL you can squeak into the playoffs at 9-7, then get hot and win the Super Bowl. NCAA contenders are picked by computer and committee, meaning it's virtually impossible to bounce back from, say, a three-loss season and make the title game. That will be slightly more likely next season, when the NCAA launches a four-team playoff.
Teams like Alabama now have an advantage because of their history of success and the strength of their conferences. By comparison, Boise State went undefeated in the 2009 regular season, but didn't have a chance to play for the title because the BCS committee deemed its schedule too soft.
For single-game bets, Avello says the NCAA is different than the NFL because college teams won't sit on a lead. A team winning 38-13 with five minutes to go may try to run up the score because routs can lead to higher rankings. So it may end up covering a 30-point spread.
Michael Shapiro is a freelance writer and author of "A Sense of Place." E-mail: 96hours@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @shapirowrites
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