Betting the 49ers in London: They're unlikely to falter

In case you haven't heard, this weekend's 49ers game against the Jacksonville Jaguars is being played at Wembley Stadium in London.

Pundits would have you think the change of scenery will have some bearing on the game. They'll bloviate about how the Niners will be jet-lagged, about how the defense might suffer on neutral ground, about how Colin Kaepernick's timing on passes could be off by just a hair.

If you plan on betting the game, however, don't be scared: The hometown team is going to cover what opened as a 16.5-point spread. I know, I know, earlier this month I picked the Denver Broncos to cover a 28-point spread against the very same Jags, and the favorites faltered, big time. But that's precisely why the Niners will cover up to two touchdowns - or maybe even more.

Allow me to explain.

First, let's state the obvious: The winless Jaguars are abysmal, and the 5-2 49ers are an underachieving, injury-riddled team that is getting stronger every week. Second, let's nod to the neutral site: Generally speaking, games at neutral sites receive what insiders call a "true spread," meaning oddsmakers do not account for home field advantage. (The Green Bay Packers, for instance, always get a few extra points when they play at home.)

Finally, follow the money. Despite the huge line in that Broncos-Jaguars game from two weeks back, reports indicate that the "handle" (the overall amount of money wagered) on the game was lower than expected, meaning bettors largely stayed away from both sides. Oddsmakers aren't going to want to turn people off like that again.

If you don't feel comfortable with the point spread, there's always the total. That number opened at 40.5. Considering how the Niners offense has come together in the past few weeks, Kaep and the gang likely are good for at least 35 on their own.

Another option: A proposition bet that is becoming known as the "Jags prop." In an effort to inspire bets behind the Jaguars, during the Denver game some oddsmakers offered a prop on whether the Jags would hold a lead. The prop saw decent action that first week. If you can find it again (online or in a Nevada sports book) before the 49ers game, grab it.

A third scenario for betting on the game? Hop a flight and follow the team. Yours truly is living in London this fall, and I've learned firsthand that the gambling scene here is robust. Casinos abound. Sports books are everywhere. And you have to be only 18 to bet.

Most London books offer obscure NFL bets such as winning margin, first/last to score and whether the point total will be odd or even. The best part: In London, there's no vigorish, which means every bet is free.

Matt Villano is a freelance writer. E-mail: 96hours@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @mattvillano

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