Sports betting: Timing essential to great odds

Way back in March, when a high school buddy of mine threw down some money on the Pittsburgh Pirates to win the National League pennant in the major-league baseball playoffs, the rest of us laughed in his face. We were in Vegas at the time to bet on college basketball, and there was this dude, going all national pastime on us.

"Yo," the friend said, "look at the odds." He shoved the ticket in our faces. Then the number stared out at us: 40/1.

In the moment, the wager suddenly seemed like genius. We all started fantasizing about how one lightning-in-a-bottle type season could turn $20 into $800 overnight. Fast forward seven months, and the bet seems even smarter: The Pirates won the NL wild card and played the St. Louis Cardinals to the wire for the right to advance to the NLCS. (At press time, it was unclear who would win the series.) The lesson: Sometimes, it really pays to embrace big odds and gamble on a long shot.

(You can't legally bet on sports in California. You can, however, head into Nevada and bet in a sports book there. You also can place these kinds of wagers at a variety of websites based outside of the United States.)

In the past 10 days, there have been a number of examples of epic sports bets:

-- Earlier this month, Ohio State eked out a cover on the final play of a game against Northwestern, costing Vegas sports books an estimated $100 million in the process. (Roughly 80 percent of the money on the game was for OSU to cover.)

-- Last weekend, a bettor in Vegas put down $282 on a (mostly money-line) 18-team parlay that spanned sports and leagues. Some of the contests were blowouts. Some were nail-biters. One of the 18 games was on the University of Toledo to win outright. When every single one of this guy's picks hit, he turned his $282 investment into more than $54,000. Dan Shapiro of Gambling911.com says the chances of such a parlay hitting are 0.00000381469 percent, meaning the guy literally had a better chance of getting struck by lightning.

-- This weekend, sports bettors are in for another piece of history: The opening 28-point spread in Sunday's Denver Broncos/Jacksonville Jaguars game was the largest spread in NFL history. With Peyton Manning having an MVP-type season and going up against the worst team in the league, the Broncos likely will do it. Consider this free betting advice.

Matt Villano is a freelance writer in Healdsburg. E-mail: 96hours@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @mattvillano

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Betting on the NFL: 49ers among title favorites

The National Football League season opens Thursday, with defending Super Bowl champion Baltimore taking on this year's favorite, the Denver Broncos. With elite quarterback Peyton Manning at the helm, the Broncos at press time were 7:2 to win the Super Bowl this year.

The team with the next best odds? The 49ers, who came within 5 yards of a thrilling comeback win in Super Bowl XLVII in February.

And this may surprise you - San Francisco's division rivals, the Seattle Seahawks, are also 5:1. The Seahawks opened in January at 10:1 at MGM Resorts and have dropped to 5:1, showing bettors like their chances.

All three teams - Denver, the 49ers and Seattle - had strong campaigns but "disappointing ends to their seasons, and people expect them to build on that and springboard into the regular season," said Jay Rood, MGM's vice president of race and sports. Bettors believe these teams will "put a better end to their story this season."

Rood says Sunday's matchup between the 49ers and the Green Bay Packers "could be the most critical Week 1 game" and be "very telling as far as the playoffs." If San Francisco loses at home, "it could come back to haunt them come playoff time."

San Francisco opened as a 4.5-point favorite for Sunday's game, but more money has been bet on Green Bay, so the spread moved down to 4 points at press time.

The Raiders aren't in the conversation for a Super Bowl title - they opened at 50:1 and MGM's odds have risen to 100:1. Oakland opens on the road against the Indianapolis Colts, who went 11-5 last year under rookie quarterback Andrew Luck after winning just two games the season before.

The Raiders opened as 7-point underdogs; by press time the spread was 10 points.

There's a lesson here: If you're in Nevada or anywhere else where sports betting is legal - it's not in California - bet quickly if you feel strongly about a game and think you'll be ahead of the crowd. If you want to bet against the Raiders, it'd be much better to give 7 points than 8.5 or 10.

Of course no bet is a sure thing. "It's still the NFL - even the worst teams usually win three or four games and stay competitive in most games," Rood said.

And how about Kansas City, which could be a team on the rise with former 49er Alex Smith at quarterback? The Chiefs open on the road (at Jacksonville), but are favored. At 50:1 the Chiefs are not likely Super Bowl contenders, "but they could really click," Rood said. "They could be this year's Indianapolis Colts."

Michael Shapiro is a freelance writer and author of "A Sense of Place." E-mail: 96hours@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @shapirowrites

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Betting the 49ers in London: They're unlikely to falter

In case you haven't heard, this weekend's 49ers game against the Jacksonville Jaguars is being played at Wembley Stadium in London.

Pundits would have you think the change of scenery will have some bearing on the game. They'll bloviate about how the Niners will be jet-lagged, about how the defense might suffer on neutral ground, about how Colin Kaepernick's timing on passes could be off by just a hair.

If you plan on betting the game, however, don't be scared: The hometown team is going to cover what opened as a 16.5-point spread. I know, I know, earlier this month I picked the Denver Broncos to cover a 28-point spread against the very same Jags, and the favorites faltered, big time. But that's precisely why the Niners will cover up to two touchdowns - or maybe even more.

Allow me to explain.

First, let's state the obvious: The winless Jaguars are abysmal, and the 5-2 49ers are an underachieving, injury-riddled team that is getting stronger every week. Second, let's nod to the neutral site: Generally speaking, games at neutral sites receive what insiders call a "true spread," meaning oddsmakers do not account for home field advantage. (The Green Bay Packers, for instance, always get a few extra points when they play at home.)

Finally, follow the money. Despite the huge line in that Broncos-Jaguars game from two weeks back, reports indicate that the "handle" (the overall amount of money wagered) on the game was lower than expected, meaning bettors largely stayed away from both sides. Oddsmakers aren't going to want to turn people off like that again.

If you don't feel comfortable with the point spread, there's always the total. That number opened at 40.5. Considering how the Niners offense has come together in the past few weeks, Kaep and the gang likely are good for at least 35 on their own.

Another option: A proposition bet that is becoming known as the "Jags prop." In an effort to inspire bets behind the Jaguars, during the Denver game some oddsmakers offered a prop on whether the Jags would hold a lead. The prop saw decent action that first week. If you can find it again (online or in a Nevada sports book) before the 49ers game, grab it.

A third scenario for betting on the game? Hop a flight and follow the team. Yours truly is living in London this fall, and I've learned firsthand that the gambling scene here is robust. Casinos abound. Sports books are everywhere. And you have to be only 18 to bet.

Most London books offer obscure NFL bets such as winning margin, first/last to score and whether the point total will be odd or even. The best part: In London, there's no vigorish, which means every bet is free.

Matt Villano is a freelance writer. E-mail: 96hours@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @mattvillano

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Online betting: Bovada's good reputation for service

I've never been a big fan of online betting. For sports, I'd rather bet with a bookie or, when in Nevada, wager at a sportsbook and watch the games on giant TV screens.

In California, sports betting isn't legal, so many people turn to online gambling sites. The legality of betting via offshore sportsbooks remains in question, but for now online wagering is popular and generally unobstructed by federal authorities.

I chose Bovada.lv because I'd long followed it to get odds on games and futures, and it has a good reputation for customer service. A reviewer of online gaming sites, MyTopSportsBooks.com, says Bovada - which used to be called Bodog - has the "best customer service in the industry" and the "best mobile betting."

Most enticing, Bovada offers a 50 percent signup bonus, up to $250. Here's how it works: Say you bet $200 on the 49ers at even money. If you win you get $500 ($200 in winnings, $100 in bonus plus your original wager).

So a few weeks ago I took the plunge and authorized a $250 deposit on my credit card. But I hit a snag: The charge was denied as "irregular." Visa sent a text alert warning me of possible fraud. I texted back to note the charge was legit, but I still had to call Visa to authorize the charge. (While this was a problem a couple of years ago, it's reportedly not as widespread an issue today.)

Then I started betting. The odds are standard: Typically you have to bet $110 to win $100, and the site is relatively easy to use. Bovada also offers proposition bets on everything from NBA scoring leaders to Academy Award winners, but the site keeps a larger proportion of money bet on props, typically 25 percent. (That's true in Nevada casinos as well - given the odds, props, including futures, should be small wagers made for fun.)

I put my entire $250 on Indianapolis, giving three points, to beat San Diego on Oct. 14, but the Colts lost, so I didn't get to see how quickly Bovada would pay. I've had problems in the past getting my cash out of another online betting site, but reports are that Bovada pays promptly. A reviewer on MyTopSportsBooks said, "When I've requested a payout ... they come quick."

Other leading online betting sites include BetOnline.com, TopBet.com and GTbets.com.

It can be easy to get carried away betting online because you're not handling money. But if you bet responsibly, it can add a thrill to watching games, wherever you are.

Michael Shapiro is a freelance writer and author of "A Sense of Place." E-mail: 96hours@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @shapirowrites

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