Betting on the NFL: 49ers among title favorites

The National Football League season opens Thursday, with defending Super Bowl champion Baltimore taking on this year's favorite, the Denver Broncos. With elite quarterback Peyton Manning at the helm, the Broncos at press time were 7:2 to win the Super Bowl this year.

The team with the next best odds? The 49ers, who came within 5 yards of a thrilling comeback win in Super Bowl XLVII in February.

And this may surprise you - San Francisco's division rivals, the Seattle Seahawks, are also 5:1. The Seahawks opened in January at 10:1 at MGM Resorts and have dropped to 5:1, showing bettors like their chances.

All three teams - Denver, the 49ers and Seattle - had strong campaigns but "disappointing ends to their seasons, and people expect them to build on that and springboard into the regular season," said Jay Rood, MGM's vice president of race and sports. Bettors believe these teams will "put a better end to their story this season."

Rood says Sunday's matchup between the 49ers and the Green Bay Packers "could be the most critical Week 1 game" and be "very telling as far as the playoffs." If San Francisco loses at home, "it could come back to haunt them come playoff time."

San Francisco opened as a 4.5-point favorite for Sunday's game, but more money has been bet on Green Bay, so the spread moved down to 4 points at press time.

The Raiders aren't in the conversation for a Super Bowl title - they opened at 50:1 and MGM's odds have risen to 100:1. Oakland opens on the road against the Indianapolis Colts, who went 11-5 last year under rookie quarterback Andrew Luck after winning just two games the season before.

The Raiders opened as 7-point underdogs; by press time the spread was 10 points.

There's a lesson here: If you're in Nevada or anywhere else where sports betting is legal - it's not in California - bet quickly if you feel strongly about a game and think you'll be ahead of the crowd. If you want to bet against the Raiders, it'd be much better to give 7 points than 8.5 or 10.

Of course no bet is a sure thing. "It's still the NFL - even the worst teams usually win three or four games and stay competitive in most games," Rood said.

And how about Kansas City, which could be a team on the rise with former 49er Alex Smith at quarterback? The Chiefs open on the road (at Jacksonville), but are favored. At 50:1 the Chiefs are not likely Super Bowl contenders, "but they could really click," Rood said. "They could be this year's Indianapolis Colts."

Michael Shapiro is a freelance writer and author of "A Sense of Place." E-mail: 96hours@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @shapirowrites

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Betting the 49ers in London: They're unlikely to falter

In case you haven't heard, this weekend's 49ers game against the Jacksonville Jaguars is being played at Wembley Stadium in London.

Pundits would have you think the change of scenery will have some bearing on the game. They'll bloviate about how the Niners will be jet-lagged, about how the defense might suffer on neutral ground, about how Colin Kaepernick's timing on passes could be off by just a hair.

If you plan on betting the game, however, don't be scared: The hometown team is going to cover what opened as a 16.5-point spread. I know, I know, earlier this month I picked the Denver Broncos to cover a 28-point spread against the very same Jags, and the favorites faltered, big time. But that's precisely why the Niners will cover up to two touchdowns - or maybe even more.

Allow me to explain.

First, let's state the obvious: The winless Jaguars are abysmal, and the 5-2 49ers are an underachieving, injury-riddled team that is getting stronger every week. Second, let's nod to the neutral site: Generally speaking, games at neutral sites receive what insiders call a "true spread," meaning oddsmakers do not account for home field advantage. (The Green Bay Packers, for instance, always get a few extra points when they play at home.)

Finally, follow the money. Despite the huge line in that Broncos-Jaguars game from two weeks back, reports indicate that the "handle" (the overall amount of money wagered) on the game was lower than expected, meaning bettors largely stayed away from both sides. Oddsmakers aren't going to want to turn people off like that again.

If you don't feel comfortable with the point spread, there's always the total. That number opened at 40.5. Considering how the Niners offense has come together in the past few weeks, Kaep and the gang likely are good for at least 35 on their own.

Another option: A proposition bet that is becoming known as the "Jags prop." In an effort to inspire bets behind the Jaguars, during the Denver game some oddsmakers offered a prop on whether the Jags would hold a lead. The prop saw decent action that first week. If you can find it again (online or in a Nevada sports book) before the 49ers game, grab it.

A third scenario for betting on the game? Hop a flight and follow the team. Yours truly is living in London this fall, and I've learned firsthand that the gambling scene here is robust. Casinos abound. Sports books are everywhere. And you have to be only 18 to bet.

Most London books offer obscure NFL bets such as winning margin, first/last to score and whether the point total will be odd or even. The best part: In London, there's no vigorish, which means every bet is free.

Matt Villano is a freelance writer. E-mail: 96hours@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @mattvillano

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