Betting on the NFL: 49ers among title favorites

The National Football League season opens Thursday, with defending Super Bowl champion Baltimore taking on this year's favorite, the Denver Broncos. With elite quarterback Peyton Manning at the helm, the Broncos at press time were 7:2 to win the Super Bowl this year.

The team with the next best odds? The 49ers, who came within 5 yards of a thrilling comeback win in Super Bowl XLVII in February.

And this may surprise you - San Francisco's division rivals, the Seattle Seahawks, are also 5:1. The Seahawks opened in January at 10:1 at MGM Resorts and have dropped to 5:1, showing bettors like their chances.

All three teams - Denver, the 49ers and Seattle - had strong campaigns but "disappointing ends to their seasons, and people expect them to build on that and springboard into the regular season," said Jay Rood, MGM's vice president of race and sports. Bettors believe these teams will "put a better end to their story this season."

Rood says Sunday's matchup between the 49ers and the Green Bay Packers "could be the most critical Week 1 game" and be "very telling as far as the playoffs." If San Francisco loses at home, "it could come back to haunt them come playoff time."

San Francisco opened as a 4.5-point favorite for Sunday's game, but more money has been bet on Green Bay, so the spread moved down to 4 points at press time.

The Raiders aren't in the conversation for a Super Bowl title - they opened at 50:1 and MGM's odds have risen to 100:1. Oakland opens on the road against the Indianapolis Colts, who went 11-5 last year under rookie quarterback Andrew Luck after winning just two games the season before.

The Raiders opened as 7-point underdogs; by press time the spread was 10 points.

There's a lesson here: If you're in Nevada or anywhere else where sports betting is legal - it's not in California - bet quickly if you feel strongly about a game and think you'll be ahead of the crowd. If you want to bet against the Raiders, it'd be much better to give 7 points than 8.5 or 10.

Of course no bet is a sure thing. "It's still the NFL - even the worst teams usually win three or four games and stay competitive in most games," Rood said.

And how about Kansas City, which could be a team on the rise with former 49er Alex Smith at quarterback? The Chiefs open on the road (at Jacksonville), but are favored. At 50:1 the Chiefs are not likely Super Bowl contenders, "but they could really click," Rood said. "They could be this year's Indianapolis Colts."

Michael Shapiro is a freelance writer and author of "A Sense of Place." E-mail: 96hours@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @shapirowrites

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College football: Few deserve your bets for title

The college football season kicks off Thursday and shifts into high gear this weekend, but with so many teams vying for the Bowl Championship Series title, it can be hard to figure out which have the best shot at the championship.

That's where the odds come in - even if you don't want to bet on college games, the odds that Vegas and online booking sites place on teams can give you a sense of who's at the front of the pack.

The Wynn/Encore sports book has Alabama as the favorite at 11:5 to win the BCS title game Jan. 6 in Pasadena. Ohio State is second at 5:1; Oregon is third at 8:1.

Stanford opened at 30:1, but is now 14:1, showing that lots of bettors like the team. "They're a good team, a solid team," says Johnny Avello, Wynn's director of race and sports operations, "but maybe a win or two away from having a shot at the title."

Wynn lists Cal at 250:1. "Forget it," Avello says.

The online betting site Bovada.lv has the over/under on Cal at four games, meaning the site expects the Bears to win only a third of their regular season games under new coach Sonny Dykes. The over/under on Stanford is 9.5 games, meaning that if you bet on the over and the Cardinal win 10 or more of their 12 contests, you win.

At Wynn's sportsbook, Stanford is 2:1 to win the Pac-12 conference; the favorite is Oregon at 6:5.

College football futures are different than NFL futures because so few NCAA teams have a legitimate title shot, Avello says.

In the NFL you can squeak into the playoffs at 9-7, then get hot and win the Super Bowl. NCAA contenders are picked by computer and committee, meaning it's virtually impossible to bounce back from, say, a three-loss season and make the title game. That will be slightly more likely next season, when the NCAA launches a four-team playoff.

Teams like Alabama now have an advantage because of their history of success and the strength of their conferences. By comparison, Boise State went undefeated in the 2009 regular season, but didn't have a chance to play for the title because the BCS committee deemed its schedule too soft.

For single-game bets, Avello says the NCAA is different than the NFL because college teams won't sit on a lead. A team winning 38-13 with five minutes to go may try to run up the score because routs can lead to higher rankings. So it may end up covering a 30-point spread.

Michael Shapiro is a freelance writer and author of "A Sense of Place." E-mail: 96hours@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @shapirowrites

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