Emma Watson told to quit acting

Emma Watson was advised to quit acting by her university professor.
The 23-year-old star - who shot to fame playing Hermione Granger in the 'Harry Potter' franchise when she was just nine - admits she almost considered ditching her career as an actress on the advice of one of her tutors.
Speaking to Entertainment Weekly magazine, she said: 'For a while I kind of bought into the hype of, 'Will they ever be able to play anything else?' It gave me a sense of paralysis and stage fright for a while. And then a professor told me that they didn't think I should act, either.
'So I was really grappling with it and wasn't feeling good about it. And then, I don't know ... it got so bad and people had put me in a box so much that it started p***ing me off. I suddenly wanted to prove them wrong. It gave me fuel, in a way. I'm not sure why that shift happened.'
The brunette beauty credits the script of her 2013 movie 'The Perks of Being a Wallflower' for encouraging her to step back into the film industry and assuring her there were roles to challenge her after 'Harry Potter'.
She explained: 'I was really unsure, but then I read the script for 'The Perks of Being a Wallflower', and falling in love with that and then having such a great experience on that movie kind of sealed the deal for me.
'I stopped intellectualising it, and it became much more instinctual. I just got the bug and got very driven all of a sudden, which I really wasn't before. But I'm so happy. It's all felt very new to me, really.'

View the original article here

Kim Kardashian ‘films reality show while in hiding’

Kim Kardashian's baby, North West, could appear on her reality show.
The TV star - who welcomed her daughter with Kanye West in June and has not been seen in public since - has reportedly been filming her reality show 'Keeping Up With The Kardashians' while in hiding.
Kim was reportedly filming scenes for the show while living in her mother Kris Jenner's home Calabasas shortly after North's birth.
A source revealed to RadarOnline: '[The camera's have been] a constant presence in Kris' house since Kim and Kanye brought North home from the hospital. Kanye has been angry about the intrusion, but Kim is contractually obligated to film.'
Kanye - who narrowly skipped an assault charge for attacking a photographer last month - has reportedly been cautious to have North filmed for the series and he will not be appearing in the show himself.
The source added: 'The baby hasn't been filmed close up, but has been captured at a distance while Kim has been holding her. North's temporary nursery has also been filmed, when Kanye wasn't around. There is no doubt that Kim would want to have North appear on the show, if Kanye wasn't so opposed to it. She is a great mother, and totally devoted to her baby.'
Meanwhile Kris has been teasing a debut of the baby on her new talk show.
The mother-and-manager pretended to carry baby North on the first episode of the show only to later reveal it wasn't her.

View the original article here

Lindsay Lohan moves to NY to stay sober

Lindsay Lohan has swapped Los Angeles for New York in order to maintain her sobriety.
The 27-year-old actress - who has just completed a court ordered 90-day rehab stint for substance abuse issues after pleading no contest to charges of lying to police about driving during a car crash in June 2012 - is determined to change her ways and believes New York will provide less temptation than Los Angeles.
A source told RadarOnline: 'Lindsay is doing so well, she's back in New York City and is trying to figure out where she is going to live and what she is going to do next. But she is clean and sober now and she's planning to stay that way.
'Lindsay loves to go out to clubs in New York but this time she's saying that she's serious about just working and not getting in trouble again.'
While the 'Canyons' actress wants to get her own apartment, she is currently living with her mother Dina and working on repairing her fractured relationship with her father Michael.
The insider added: 'Lindsay hasn't made any real plans about where she is going to live long term. She likes living on her own but also likes living with Dina. She is enjoying spending time with her family now.
'Michael doesn't want to be a part of her business life, he just wants to be Lindsay's dad and a dad with all of his kids.'

View the original article here

Khloe Kardashian promotes new WWF campaign

Khloe Kardashian has teamed up with the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) for a stylish campaign.
The 'Keeping Up with the Kardashians' star, who was previously a spokesperson for PETA, is the face of the organisation's NEW Prizeo campaign, which aims to help save the 3,200 wild tigers left in the world, and as part of her involvement will take one lucky donor on a free shopping spree in her designer store Dash, during which she will act as a personal stylist.
The 29-year-old brunette beauty said: 'I have always been a lover of exotic cats - leopard, tigers, lions, you name it. And I never knew how almost to extinction tigers were in the wild. And as soon as I became aware of that information just a few years ago, I really became passionate about just having a voice and letting people know that we need to protect our wildlife.'
Khloe, who is married to basketball star Lamar Odom, helped raise $15,000 for the organisation in a week after she tweeted its phone number to her followers, according to EOnline.com.
She hopes her fans will be equally supportive of her new campaign.
She said: 'I am so thankful to all my fans for supporting me and for supporting the causes that I love and that are so dear to my heart.'
Khloe stopped supporting PETA in March 2012 after it voiced its support for a woman who flour-bombed her sister Kim on the red carpet for wearing fur.
Announcing her departure from the group, Khloe said: 'I just received word that the woman responsible has very close ties to PETA, despite PETA publicly stating otherwise.
'I've been a vocal supporter of PETA for a long time but I have also been very vocal about anti-bullying, so this was a huge disappointment for me. As you all know, I don't condone violence and bullying and what happened last Thursday was just that.'

View the original article here

Lindsay Lohan begs mum to go to rehab

Lindsay Lohan has reportedly been 'begging' her mother to go into rehab.
'The Canyons' actress recently completed her own 90-day court ordered stint at the Cliffside Malibu treatment centre and is said to be urging Dina to seek similar treatment.
A source told RadarOnline.com: 'Lindsay has been worried sick about Dina lately.
'She knows Dina has been out drinking and she sees how much her own treatment helped her, so she has been begging her mother to go and get help.'
According to reports, the 27-year-old star is trying to get her mother to realise she needs help - but Dina apparently 'refuses to listen.'
The insider added: 'Lindsay has been trying to get Dina to see she has a problem too and she needs to get help, but Dina refuses to listen and insists she doesn't have a problem and doesn't need rehab.'
Those close to her family suggest Lindsay's own reluctance to seek help will be matched by her mother.
The source said: 'Getting Lindsay to go, even though it was ordered by the court, was almost impossible and it seems like Dina is going to fight even harder than Lindsay did to stay out of rehab.'

View the original article here

Jamie Campbell Bower: Teens need movies

Jamie Campbell Bower thinks teenagers need movies they can 'identify' with.
The 24-year-old actor can understand why his latest film, supernatural saga 'The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones', has been compared with the 'Twilight Saga' franchise - in which he also appears - but insists that is just because they explore similar themes which are relevant to their target audience.
He told Event magazine: ''The Mortal Instruments' is not 'Twilight'. There are similarities like vampires, werewolves and a love triangle, but love triangles have existed throughout history, in literature and movies.
'It's never been easy being a teenager emotionally and hormonally, so it's really important for them to have movies like this that they can identify with.'
Jamie - who is dating his 'Mortal Instruments' co-star Lily Collins - also admitted he is grateful for the support of his parents, particularly when he dropped out of private education to pursue his dream.
He said: 'I dropped out of my A-levels because I started to act. 'Sweeney Todd' with Johnny Depp was my first film, and I chose not to go back to school.
'My parents could have gone, 'Are you mental? We put so much effort, time and money into your education.' But they were very supportive.'

View the original article here

Simon Cowell’s lover didn’t expect pregnancy

Simon Cowell's lover Lauren Silverman didn't think she could get pregnant.
The New York socialite - who has a seven-year-old son with her estranged husband Andrew Silverman - didn't use protection during her secret relationship with the music mogul because she had been told she couldn't have any more children.
A source told the New York Post newspaper: 'She and Simon were not using protection because doctors said she couldn't get pregnant.'
The 36-year-old brunette beauty is said to be thrilled at her pregnancy news, but is concerned she could lose the unborn tot.
The source explained: 'The only fear is that because of her history of miscarriages, she might lose the child and end up with nothing.'
Meanwhile, the 53-year-old 'X Factor' boss previously pledged to give Lauren $4.5 million a year until the youngster turns 21 after taking legal and financial advice over the 'messy' situation.
A source previously said 'He wants to ensure he does the right thing for her and their baby as well as resolving this mess.
'Simon wanted to know exactly where he stands and to minimise the damage this will do to his bank balance.
'He has a good relationship with Lauren at the moment but when you're as wealthy as Simon, you can't take any chances. Money changes people.
'Simon has warned he won't be taken for a ride just because he's rich.
'He's more than prepared to be fair and generous but he's no mug.'

View the original article here

Jennifer Lopez signs $15 million deal with American Idol

Jennifer Lopez will return to 'American Idol' for a reported $15 million.
The 'Jenny from Block' singer has allegedly sealed a deal with network Fox which will make her one of the highest paid judges in reality TV.
The 44-year-old singer - who hasn't appeared on the show since 2011 - has negotiated a spot on the judging panel for series 13 after sitting out last season.
The singer's fee matches the amount Britney Spears received from Simon Cowell to appear on the US 'X Factor' in 2012, but is two million short of what Mariah Carey is thought to have been paid to replace her last year.
J-Lo's fee is now five million short of the $20 million she received for the 2011 series on the judge's panel, but it's still an impressive pay rise from the $12 million she earned for her debut during season 10.
It's believed the star approached Fox about a return as she wants to be based in Los Angeles so she can have a settled life with her five-year-old twins, Max and Emme, as they prepare to go to start school.
A source told RadarOnline.com: 'Idol allowed her to do that, the twins will enter kindergarten soon and stability is important for them ­ and Jennifer­ at this time. She's looking for possible schools for the kids in Los Angeles at the moment. Plus, if she's living there full-time she will be able to focus on her film career and other ventures, including her fashion business.'
The pop star's return is to be announced in the coming weeks, while the show is set to return to the original three-member judging panel as seen in 2002, which then featured Simon Cowell, Paula Abdul and Randy Jackson.
Country music star Keith Urban, is believed to be returning to the show while a third member is yet to signed, with will.i.am tipped to take the third position.

View the original article here

Emily Blunt rejected by charity?

Emily Blunt was reportedly rejected by UNICEF after it decided she wasn't famous enough to become one of their celebrity ambassadors.
The 'Devil Wears Prada' actress was courted by the London office of the United Nations Children's Fund but they are said to have withdrawn their request to work with her after executives in New York vetoed the appointment.
A source told MailOnline: 'UNICEF was keen to court Emily and made contact with her.
'She's a big name in British cinema, glamorous, and very much on the rise after winning some big accolades, so she seemed to be a perfect addition.
'It's a big deal to be asked, and Emily's people were keen to get her involved. But all of the celebrities in the list have to be signed off in New York and some of the senior management didn't feel she was enough of a star, so they've gone cold on her.
'It is very disappointing for Emily and quite embarrassing for her. More than anything, she has supported UNICEF in the past and would have loved to do more to help what she believes is a fantastic charity.'
A spokeswoman for UNICEF confirmed they had been in discussions with Emily but insisted she had not been rejected.
She said: 'UNICEF would love to work with Emily Blunt and hopes that there will be opportunities in the future.'

View the original article here

Rita Ora apologises for gig cancellation

Rita Ora has apologised to fans for cancelling her latest gig.
The 'How We Do' hitmaker has pulled out of performing to over 8,000 horse racing fans at the Haydock Park racecourse, Merseyside, tonight (08.09.13) after she was struck down with a throat infection.
Apologising on Twitter, she wrote: 'I would never do this unless I physically had too and in this situation I unfortunately do. I am so so sorry for cancelling my shows.
'This weekend I've never and will never not perform unless I physically can't put on a good show for you I have a bad infection in the throat
'And chest. I am so sorry and as soon as I get better I will make it up to you. I promise. I love you. Rita. (sic).'
The news came as a shock to fans as just days before, the pop starlet appeared to be fighting fit, even posting snaps on Instagram of her training with boxing ace David Haye.
The 'R.I.P' singer - currently dating Scottish DJ Calvin Harris - is also due to play a gig in Zofingen, Switzerland, this Sunday (11.08.13), which at present is still scheduled to go ahead.
Rita is hoping to be in tip top condition again in time for her performance at V Festival in the UK next week.

View the original article here

Urban Ski Slope to Raise Profile of Europe's Waste-to-Energy Drive

Thomas K. Grose

Copenhagen, with a waterfront already famous for bike lanes, pedestrian walkways, and offshore wind turbines, is adding another clean energy feature to its urban landscape: a ski resort.

Perhaps the man-made slope will never rival the summits of Sweden or the Alps, where residents of Denmark's capital city typically travel to ski. But it will draw attention to Copenhagen's world-leading effort to cut fossil energy and waste. The ski slope will rest atop a $389 million (500 million euro), 60-megawatt power station fueled entirely by the city's garbage. (See related: "Quiz: What You Don't Know About Electricity.")

The Amager Bakke incinerator, now under construction, will contribute to Copenhagen's ambitious goal of becoming carbon-neutral by 2025. When finished in 2017, it will produce heat for 160,000 households and electricity for 62,500 residences. It is perhaps the flashiest example yet of Europe's effort to deploy cutting-edge waste-to-energy technology in the effort to cut greenhouse gas emissions. While some critics in Europe's green movement question the environmental benefits, and cost also can be an obstacle, cities like Copenhagen are convinced that producing megawatts is better than piling trash in landfills. (See related story: "On Mount Everest, Seeking Biogas Energy in a Mountain of Waste.")

Turning Trash to Treasure

The move toward waste-to-energy (WTE) plants was kick-started in 1999, with a European Union directive requiring member states to greatly reduce the amount of garbage going to landfills. As of 2010 (the most current year for which statistics are available), there were 451 WTE facilities in Europe, up from 390 in 2001, according to the Confederation of European Waste-to-Energy Plants (CEWEP). The plants annually incinerate 73 million metric tons of waste, producing 44 million megawatt-hours (MWH) of electricity and 61 million MWH of heat, or enough power to keep 13 million people wired and another 13 million warm. (See related story: "Waste Wattage: Cities Aim to Flush Heat Energy Out of Sewers.")

And more waste-to-energy projects are starting up, or are on the way. One market research firm says the EU's tightening standards on waste are a key driver behind world growth in WTE that it says will accelerate in the next five years, with 250 new plants and installed capacity on track to increase 21 percent by 2016. Ireland, which opened its first WTE plant in County Meath in 2011, is already expanding its capacity and more proposals are being debated. Several projects recently have been approved in the United Kingdom, including a modernistic WTE facility in the countryside between York and Harrowgate. It's not clear, though, if the Allerton Park energy recovery park will go forward, since the government withdrew £65 million in waste infrastructure credits for the controversial project earlier this year. (See related story: "Whisky a Go Go: Can Scotland's Distillery Waste Boost Biofuels? ")

In Copenhagen, the Amager Bakke plant also saw its share of controversy. Back in late 2011, city officials initially rejected the slick-looking, slope-topped facility—the design of hot Danish architect Bjarke Ingels—because of concerns that it wasn't environmentally friendly enough. But the utility, Amager Resource Center (ARC), overcame those objections. A key was the improvement compared to the existing 40-year-old waste-to-energy (WTE) plant that housed two generators, one that produced 20 MW and another that generated 9 MW. (See related story: "Can Nuclear Waste Spark an Energy Solution?")

While the new plant will increase carbon-dioxide emissions by 43 percent—from 140,000 tons a year to 200,000 tons—ARC says new technologies will make the plant 25 percent more efficient than the old one. In other words, it says, 3 kilos of incinerated waste will keep a light bulb burning for five hours instead of four. "It's not about size, it's about how you use it," said ARC spokeswoman Signe Josephsen. (See related story: "While Energy Policy Falters, Plastic Bag Laws Multiply.")

The burning of trash for power is hardly a new technology, but the current state-of-the-art plants—which use the heat created from the garbage inferno to make steam for heat or to run turbines for electricity—use expensive filters that scrub the flue gases to greatly reduce the amount of dangerous pollutants, such as dioxins, that are emitted. Because about half of the CO2 emitted is from biowaste, not fossil fuels, proponents say the plants are partly powered by renewable fuel, making them cleaner than fossil-fuel plants.

But the main argument in favor of WTE plants is that if the tons of trash that they burn had instead been buried in landfills, the decomposition would have led to greater atmospheric harm through the release of methane, a greenhouse gas that is 25 times more potent than CO2 as a heat-trapping gas. According to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, greenhouse gas emissions from landfills are two to six times higher than those generated from plants that burn waste, when measured per unit of electricity generated. Moreover, metals that would have been buried are instead easily plucked from the ashes and recycled. That's one big reason why in April the Center for American Progress (CAP), a progressive think tank based in Washington, D.C., issued a report urging the United States to build more WTE plants to help cut the nation's greenhouse gas emissions. (There are currently just 26 in the United States, which has 56 times the population of Denmark, where there are 30 operating WTE facilities.) (See related interactive map: "The Global Electricity Mix.")

The Environmental Debate

Not everyone, however, thinks incinerators are such a hot idea. Nearby communities often fear air pollution from smokestacks and traffic impacts from trash hauling to the facilities. Some green groups, including Brussels-based Friends of the Earth Europe (FOEE), fear that burning trash for power stunts efforts to encourage recycling. "The only way to reduce CO2 emissions when it comes to waste policy is by preventing, reusing, and recycling," said Ariadna Rodrigo, a FOEE resource use campaigner.

But WTE proponents argue that extracting power from waste goes hand-in-hand with recycling efforts. "There does not have to be a choice between the two solutions. We're very much into recycling," said Rasmus Meyer, also of ARC. Moreover, CEWEP claims, 100 percent recycling is not possible. Some materials degrade after repeated recycling, some are too filthy (diapers, vacuum cleaner bags), some are too mixed to be sorted, and there's no demand for some recycled products.

And, to be sure, countries that are the biggest users of waste power tend to have very impressive recycling rates, too. Germany produces more waste power than any European country—a total of 26 MWH in 2010—and it recycles 62 percent of its municipal solid waste, while incinerating 37 percent of it. Denmark, meanwhile, recycles 43 percent of its rubbish and burns 54 percent of it. Across the EU, on average, 40 percent of urban refuse is recycled and 23 percent is used for energy. Meanwhile, the U.S. manages to recycle just 23 percent of its garbage. Nevertheless, Rodrigo insists, incineration still places inherent limits on recycling, because once a plant is built it has to operate for 20 to 30 years to recoup its investment. "And you still have to feed that monster."

The dash for trash-power has also resulted in a thriving pan-European import-export market for rubbish. "Waste is a commodity, and there's a well-functioning waste market in Europe today," said Pål Spillum, head of the waste recovery and hazardous waste section of the Norwegian Environment Agency. Norway, particularly its capital city Oslo, was spotlighted earlier this year when Britain's Guardian newspaper and the New York Times both ran stories about how it was shipping in trash from Britain, Ireland and Sweden to help power its WTE plants.

Several other countries, particularly Germany, import even more rubbish than Norway.The size of this market, however, is hard to determine. The import and export of nonhazardous waste doesn't have to be reported, so the European Environmental Agency has no statistics available. Spillum maintains that Norway, which burned 1.3 million tons of refuse for energy in 2011, exports more waste than it imports. In 2011, it imported about 90,000 tons of nonhazardous waste, but it exported 1.7 million tons. Overall, Norway has 17 WTE plants. The two in Oslo burn about 410,000 tons of waste a year, and provide 840 GWh of heat—enough to heat 30 percent of the city's 300,000 households and to provide an additional 160 GWh of electricity. (See related story: "A Fuel That Doesn't Go to Waste.")

Measuring Costs

Does all that shipping of garbage, and the resulting CO2 emissions from transportation, undercut the green edge that WTE plants have over landfills? A 2011 study by Swedish consulting firm Profu looked at six Northern European countries-Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Germany, the Netherlands, and Belgium-that were big consumers of rubbish from Eastern Europe. It concluded that WTE was still a net benefit for the atmosphere; each metric ton of municipal waste burned for energy prevented the emission from landfills of more than 600 kilograms of CO2 equivalent.

One possible drawback, in the United States at least, could be high construction costs. Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, was driven to the brink of bankruptcy over a $345 million debt largely racked up by the costs of overhauling and expanding a power-generating incinerator. But the CAP study says that, by and large, WTE plants in the United States, which could cost between $100 million to $300 million to build, depending on size, should be able to recoup building costs from fees and from the sale of power to the grid, as well as from the sale of recovered recyclable metals.

Meanwhile, back in Denmark, the Amager Bakke incinerator-at 80 meters (260 feet), it will be one of the tallest buildings in Copenhagen-aims to stand as an example of WTE potential. Another unique feature of the Amager Bakke incinerator-and-ski-slope-if the technology's ready-will be a smokestack that belches out a giant smoke ring each time a ton of carbon dioxide is emitted. "It's a way to demonstrate to the people of Copenhagen that they are responsible for the environment," ARC's Meyer says. And if too many Copenhageners pay heed to the 200,000 smoke rings wafting over their city each year and deeply cut back on their waste streams? Well, there's still plenty of Eastern European garbage available to keep the fires beneath Amager Bakke's snow-covered slope fully stoked.

This story is part of a special series that explores energy issues. For more, visit The Great Energy Challenge.

View the original article here

What We Do—and Don't—Know About Brain-Eating Amoebas

A 12-year-old Arkansas girl has been in a hospital for over a week after being infected with a typically fatal parasite that enters through the nose and consumes brain tissue.

A news release Friday from the Arkansas Department of Health says the source of the parasite is most likely a sandy-bottom lake at Willow Springs Water Park in Little Rock. A similar case was linked to the park in 2010.

This rare form of parasitic meningitis—primary amebic meningoencephalitis (PAM)—is caused by an amoeba called Naegleria fowleri. That microscopic amoeba—part of the class of life called protozoans—is a naturally occurring organism that normally feeds on bacteria and tends to live in the sedimentary layer of warm lakes and ponds.

(See "Giant Amoebas Found in Deepest Place on Earth.")

To find out more about Naegleria fowleri, National Geographic got in touch with Jonathan Yoder, an epidemiologist at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention who collects and analyzes data on the microscopic amoeba.

How does this amoeba called Naegleria fowleri infect a human?

Under certain conditions, Naegleria fowleri can develop flagella—threadlike structures that enable it to rapidly move around and look for more favorable conditions. When people swim in warm freshwater during the summer, water contaminated with the moving amoeba can be forced up the nose and into the brain.

This causes headache, stiff neck, and vomiting, which progresses to more serious symptoms. Between exposure and onset, infection generally results in a coma and death after around five days.

Where is it found?

We see it in warm freshwater or in places with minimal chlorination. It is not uncommon to detect the amoeba if you sample freshwater in warm weather states.

Can it live in swimming pools?

There have been no evident cases of contamination in the United States in well-maintained, properly treated swimming pools. Filtration and chlorination or other types of disinfectant should reduce or eliminate the risk.

But it does get a bit trickier—there was a case in Arizona about ten years ago where a kid swam in a pool filled with water from a geothermal hot water source before it was treated. Unfortunately, the kid became ill and died.

Are cases of infection becoming more common?

We don't have data that says infection from Naegleria fowleri is becoming more common. In the last few years there have been four to five cases per year.

What has changed recently is that cases have appeared in places we had never seen before—like Minnesota, Indiana, and Kansas. This is evidence that the amoeba is moving farther north. In the past it was always found in warmer weather states.

Why does the amoeba enter the nose of some people but not others?

That is a very good question we don't know the answer to. Millions of people swim in these bodies of water every year and don't become ill. So it is difficult for us to say why one person would become ill and other people who swam in the same place and did the same activities did not. It certainly can affect anyone.

What is the chance of survival?

Since 1962, there have been 128 cases of Naegleria fowleri [infection] and only one survivor, not including the current case. Back in 1978, a patient survived after being treated with antibiotics. The same regimen has been tried unsuccessfully on other patients.

How can people stay safe?

If people want to reduce their risk of becoming infected—even though this is a rare event— the thing to think about is holding their nose shut or wearing nose clips when swimming in warm, untreated freshwater. Keep your head above water in hot springs or other thermally heated bodies of water, and during activities where water is forced up the nose, like water sports and diving.

Another way to reduce the risk of infection is to avoid stirring up the sediment in lakes and ponds, where the amoeba may live.

This is a tragic event for someone who becomes infected, as well as their family. We feel it is important for us to be involved even though it does not affect lots of people each year.

This interview has been edited and condensed.

Follow Jaclyn Skurie on Twitter.

View the original article here

How Old Is That Lion? A Guide to Aging Animals

It seems like every year, the world discovers a newest oldest animal.

Almost a decade ago, it was Ming, the 405-year-old clam. Then there was Jonathan, a giant tortoise who was touted as the world's oldest living creature—until questions later emerged about his identity. There are accounts of 150-year-old whales and 115-year-old reptiles. They make Lonesome George—the famous Galápagos tortoise who died last year at 100—seem relatively young in comparison.

Determining the ages of these particular animals was not overly difficult. Like all clams, Ming grew tree-like rings for every year it was alive. Jonathan and George—the tortoises—were well documented, having appeared in diaries and photographs over the years. The bowhead whale—called the longest-living mammal on Earth—was found with a century-old harpoon pin lodged inside of it.

But determining the age of other animals—particularly those born in the wild—is not such an easy task. Zoologists can take x-rays to look for growth markers in the skeletal structure. And they can easily find out how old an animal is after death, by examining certain biological markers on an autopsy.

Without x-rays or tissue samples, however, determining the age of an animal becomes a lot more difficult. Zoologists must rely on visual cues, with a little bit of guesswork thrown in. Below, a guide to what they look for in various species to determine age.

Orangutans Get Wrinkles Too

A lot of primate aging has to do with teeth, says Meredith Bastian, curator of primates and small mammals at the Philadelphia Zoo.

"If I look at teeth, I have a pretty accurate idea of how old an animal is," she says.

Specifically, Bastian is looking at a primate's molars. Worn-down molars may indicate that a primate is older—or it may indicate that a primate eats food that requires a lot of heavy-duty chewing.

She also looks at a primate's skin.

"There are indications that are very similar to humans," says Bastian. "It's very clear—you can differentiate a baby versus a juvenile versus later stages of life, by looking at wrinkly skin."

In wild male orangutans, zoologists look for something called a flange—or cheek pads—which are only visible on sexually mature dominant males. As they age and become over-the-hill orangutans, their flanges sag—much like our jowls.

But that's not always 100 percent accurate, says Bastian, because unflanged sexually mature males also exist.

"It used to be thought that only flanged males could mate because the flange helps them emit long calls to attract females," she says. "That's the dominant male strategy. Unflanged males have a sneakier strategy. They basically mate away from the flanged males and try not to get caught."

Female orangutans don't have flanges. They do wrinkle and lose bone density, much the way older humans do.

"They might have less hair if they're more stressed," adds Bastian.

One last marker? The whites of orangutan eyes. Babies have white circles around their eyes that disappear gradually over time. So if you can see whites it means that an orangutan hasn't finished weaning yet.

Another Use for Cat Hair

For dating cats, you want to start out with the hair, says Tammy Schmidt, curator of carnivores and ungulates at the Philadelphia Zoo.

"Hair gets dry and brittle and gray as it ages," she says. "That's true for everything from house cats to big cats like an elderly lion or tiger."

Of course, you don't want to get too close to an elderly lion or tiger. But it is possible to see changes in their fur coats from a distance.

"The hair becomes duller," says Schmidt. "A cat is going to take less care and time with their fur coat [as it ages]."

There are other clues, but they may be harder to see.

"A carnivore like a lion or tiger is made to be secret and sly about what's happening to them," says Schmidt. "You need to put all of the pieces of the puzzle together."

Those pieces include things like muscle tone—animals become less toned as they age—and how the tail fits between an animal's hips.

"You look at how full the rump is," she says. "Can you see ribs? You look at how they're moving. Older animals are going to have more pronounced stepping because their eyesight is diminishing."

Only Dead Fish Admit Their Ages

The secret to aging fish is in the ear, reveals Kara Hilwig, the supervisor for the Alaska State Fish and Game lab. Hilwig was part of the team who recently aged a 200-year-old rockfish captured in Alaska.

To age the rockfish, Hilwig sliced through the animal's head and removed two tiny ear bones called otoliths. The otoliths have annual growth rings—like a clam or a tree—which can be counted to determine how old a fish is.

One caveat: The fish must be dead.

"We break the bones in half and then put them over a flame," says Hilwig. "And that's how you can discern this annual feature."

Want to age a fish without slicing its head off and digging around for ear bones? You're out of luck, she says.

"It would be very hard to determine a fish's actual age without the otolith," she says.

It's also important to make sure fish live in an environment where temperatures fluctuate. The otoliths only grow in the summertime.

"For fish down in the tropics, there's no distinct signature," she says. "So it's much harder to determine growth."

Follow Melody Kramer on Twitter.

View the original article here

Inca Child Sacrifice Victims Were Drugged

Three Inca mummies found near the lofty summit of Volcán Llullaillaco in Argentina were so well preserved that they put a human face on the ancient ritual of capacocha—which ended with their sacrifice.

Now the bodies of 13-year-old Llullaillaco Maiden and her younger companions Llullaillaco Boy and Lightning Girl have revealed that mind-altering substances played a part in their deaths and during the year-long series of ceremonial processes that prepared them for their final hours.

Under biochemical analysis, the Maiden's hair yielded a record of what she ate and drank during the last two years of her life. This evidence seems to support historical accounts of a few selected children taking part in a year of sacred ceremonies—marked in their hair by changes in food, coca, and alcohol consumption—that would ultimately lead to their sacrifice. (Related: "Lofty Ambitions of the Inca.")

In Inca religious ideology, the authors note, coca and alcohol could induce altered states associated with the sacred. But the substances likely played a more pragmatic role as well, disorienting and sedating the young victims on the high mountainside to make them more accepting of their own grim fates.

Well-Preserved History

The Maiden and her young counterparts, found in 1999, exist in a remarkable state of natural preservation due to frigid conditions just below the mountain's 22,110-foot (6,739-meter) summit.

"In terms of mummies that are known around the world, in my opinion she has to be the best preserved of any of the mummies that I'm aware of," said forensic and archaeological expert Andrew Wilson, of the University of Bradford (U.K.). "She looks almost as if she's just fallen asleep."

It is this incredible level of preservation that made possible the kinds of technical analysis that, paired with the pristine condition of the artifacts and textiles arrayed in the tomb-like structure, allowed experts to re-create the events that took place in this thin air some 500 years ago.

"I suppose that's what makes this all the more chilling," Wilson added. "This isn't a desiccated mummy or a set of bones. This is a person; this is a child. And this data that we've generated in our studies is really pointing to some poignant messages about her final months and years."

(Photos: "Frozen Inca Mummy Goes On Display.")

Before the Final Day

Because hair grows about a centimeter a month and remains unchanged thereafter, the Maiden's long, braided locks contain a time line of markers that record her diet, including consumption of substances like coca and alcohol in the form of chicha, a fermented brew made from maize.

The markers show she appears to have been selected for sacrifice a year before her actual death, Wilson explained. During this period her life changed dramatically, as did her surging consumption of both coca and alcohol, which were then controlled substances not available for everyday use. "We suspect the Maiden was one of the acllas, or chosen women, selected around the time of puberty to live away from her familiar society under the guidance of priestesses," he said, noting that this practice is described in the accounts of Spaniards who chronicled information on such rites given to them by the Inca.

A previous DNA and chemical study, also led by Wilson, examined changes in the Maiden's diet and found marked improvements during the year before her death, including the consumption of elite foods like maize and animal protein, perhaps llama meat. Now it's clear that the Maiden's consumption of coca also rose heavily throughout the year before her death, spiking dramatically 12 months before her death and again 6 months before her death. (Related: "Thousands of Inca Mummies Raised From Their Graves.")

"These data fit with the suggestion that she was perhaps leading an ordinary or even peasant lifestyle up to that point, but a year before her death she's selected, effectively removed from that existence and the lifestyle that was familiar to her, and projected into a different existence," Wilson said. "And now we see a massive change in terms of the use of coca."

The Maiden consistently used coca at a high level during the last year of her life, but her alcohol consumption surged tellingly only in her last weeks.

"We're probably talking about the last six to eight weeks, which show that very altered existence, that she's either compliant in taking this or is being made to ingest such a large quantity of alcohol. Certainly in her final weeks she's again entering a different state, probably one in which these chemicals, the coca and the chicha alcohol, might be used in almost a controlling way in the final buildup to the culmination of this capacocha rite and her sacrifice."

On the day of the Maiden's death the drugs may have made her more docile, putting her in a stupor or perhaps even rendering her unconscious. That theory seems to be supported by her relaxed, seated position inside the tomb-like structure, and the fact that the artifacts around her were undisturbed as was the feathered headdress she wore as she drifted off to death. Chewed coca leaves were found in the mummy's mouth upon her discovery in 1999.

The younger children show lower levels of coca and alcohol use, perhaps due to their lesser status in the ritual itself, or to their differences in age and size. "Perhaps as an older child there was a greater need to bring the Maiden to that point of sedation," Wilson said.

And while other capacocha sites show evidence of violence, like cranial trauma, these children were left to slip off peacefully. "Either they got it right, in terms of perfecting the mechanisms of performing this type of sacrifice, or these children went much more quietly," Wilson explained.

State-Sanctioned Sacrifices

Kelly Knudson, an archaeological chemist at Arizona State University, wasn't involved with the research but said the exciting study shows how archaeological science can help us understand both the intimate details of human lives and larger ancient societies.

"Seeing increases in both the consumption of alcohol and coca is very interesting, both in terms of the capacocha sacrifices and their lives before they died, and also in terms of what it can tell us about Inca coercion and control," Knudson said.

The system of control that brought these children to a remote mountaintop at extreme altitude shows all the hallmarks of state support at the highest level, the study's authors suggest, and may have occurred as part of a military and political expansion of the Cuzco-based empire that took place just prior to the arrival of the Spanish.

"The sort of logistical support needed even today to work at this altitude is extensive," Wilson explained. "And here we're talking about evidence that points to the highest possible, imperial-level support. There are artifacts and clothes that are elite and refined products coming from effectively the four corners of the Inca Empire."

Such artifacts include figures made of spondylus shells, brought from the coast, and feathered headdresses from the Amazon Basin. Well-crafted statues of gold and silver, adorned with finely woven miniature clothing, were also available only to the highest levels of society. "I think the whole assemblage represents their status and also the symbolism that this was undertaken under the highest possible sanction," he added. Wilson and his co-authors suggest that such sacrifices may have been a highly stratified means to help exert social control over large areas of conquered territories.

(Last year a study published in PloS ONE showed that the Maiden was suffering from a lung infection at the time of the sacrifice.)

Evidence Supports Early Spanish Chronicles

Johan Reinhard, a National Geographic Society Explorer-in-Residence, discovered the mummies in 1999 with colleague Constanza Ceruti, of the Catholic University of Salta (Argentina).

Reinhard, a co-author of the new study, said he's particularly interested in how the findings compare to what's been written in the historical chronicles of such ceremonies, penned by early Spanish explorers to the New World. "They describe how these ceremonies took place, but they weren't firsthand accounts; no Spanish ever saw one of these personally," Reinhard said. "They depended on what the Inca had told them about what happened."

(In the mid-16th century, for example, Juan de Betanzos wrote of widespread child sacrifices, up to a thousand individuals, on the testimony of his wife—who had previously been married to none other than the Inca Emperor Atahualpa.)

Now the data appear to match the kinds of events described in the chronicles, Reinhard said. "All of a sudden you have this picture where you can almost see what they are going through. Increased attention is paid to them in terms of better food and coca, which was used in ceremonies and wasn't in very common use. This kind of increased attention paid to these children is exactly what you read in the chronicles."

For example, Reinhard said, it's not surprising to see an increase in coca consumption during the year before the death of a chosen child like the Maiden because of the tales told in the chronicles.

"They talk about pilgrimages going to Cuzco and a series of ceremonies during which these children would be sent from one place to another on long pilgrimages. I think it's also interesting that there is a six-month period associated with these largest spikes in coca use," he added. "It could be six months related to something else, but a hypothesis to throw out there is that this corroborates historical accounts that some of these Virgins of the Sun were taken to solstice ceremonies during the year before they were taken off to their deaths."

Today the mummies reside in the Museo de Arqueología de Alta Montaña (MAAM) in Salta, Argentina. The extent to which their physical remains may support historical and archaeological records is exciting, Wilson added, but it is also chilling that the children remain so recognizably human even in death.

"For me it's almost like the children are able to reach out to us to tell us their own stories," he said. "Hair, especially, is such a personal thing, and here it's able to provide some compelling evidence and tell us a very personal story even after five centuries."

The study was published July 29 in the PNAS Early Edition journal.

View the original article here

Wolves Identified by Unique Howls, May Help Rare Species

A gray wolf peers from a bush in Idaho's Sawtooth Mountains.

Photograph by Jim and Jamie Dutcher, National Geographic

Jennifer S. Holland

If any gray wolves are howling their discontent with a recent proposal to remove what remains of their U.S. federal protection, scientists can now identify the outspoken.

A new, more sophisticated method for analyzing sound recordings of wild wolf howls can, with absolute accuracy, tell individual wolves apart-and may even help save the old dog, according to a new paper in the journal Bioacoustics.

Study leader Holly Root-Gutteridge and colleagues at Nottingham Trent University in the U.K., working with recordings of wild wolves mostly from Algonquin Provincial Park (map) in Ontario, Canada, also found the technique can distinguish a single animal from a chorus of howlers with 97.4 percent accuracy. The team had previously used the method with captive wolves, but this is the first time it's worked with wild wolf songs and all the ambient sounds that go with them.

Specifically, the team's more thorough howl analysis looks at pitch—also considered by previous howl-analyzing tools—but also at amplitude, or the acoustic energy, of recorded howls.

"This is like trying to describe the human voice by saying 'Sandra has a high voice, and Jane has a high voice,'" said Root-Gutteridge, "then refining it by saying 'Sandra has a soft-spoken voice, but Jane has a loud voice.' The highness still matters, but if you add the detail about vocal intensity, you're less likely to confuse Sandra and Jane."

What's more, the technology is able to scrutinize howl recordings and throw out extra, unneeded noises like wind and water that might otherwise confuse the data.

Tracking Wolves a Challenge

These majestic canids—which once roamed most of the northern Rockies of the United States and Canada and the forests along the Great Lakes—nearly went extinct in the early 1960s, when they were considered vermin and all but eradicated by hunters. After the shooting stopped, only about 300 gray wolves remained, skulking through the deep woods of upper Michigan and Minnesota.

With protection under the Endangered Species Act, gray wolves have come back from the brink—one of the biggest success stories in U.S. conservation history. (Related: "Wolf Wars" in National Geographic magazine.)

Though nowhere near the historical estimate of more than 400,000 gray wolves in the United States, now as many as 5,000 live in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota, with another 7,000 in Alaska. Smaller numbers of reintroduced wolves live in Montana, Idaho, and Wyoming.

But monitoring their populations, which remains a vital part of management, has always been an inexact and labor-intensive science.

Methods include tracking the animals based on pawprints and other marks in the snow, which works quite well-when it snows. GPS collaring lets you know where an individual is, but not with whom it spends its time.

Plus, collars are expensive and collaring requires capturing wolves first-a huge and stressful undertaking for all involved, said Root-Gutteridge. (See an interactive on the return of the wolf.)

Finally, you can play howl recordings to wolves and listen to their replies-which can carry six miles (ten kilometers)-but you can't identify individuals and don't know when one animal is repeating itself or when a new howler has joined in.

DNA analysis of scat has its place, but it is costly and requires finding the wolves first.

Wolves Out of the Woods?

Now that the new technique has been shown to succeed with wild animals, the team sees it as a tool to help conserve wolves in their natural habitats. (See more wolf pictures.)

For instance, tracking howls accurately could make future wolf counts and monitoring of individuals much more precise. If plans go forward to fully drop the gray wolf from the U.S. Endangered Species list and let states do as they please regarding hunting, better monitoring could over time help determine if it was too soon to strip away those last protective rules, as many conservationists argue.

The technology could also be put to use with other canids like African wild dogs and Ethiopian wolves, both of which are endangered in their habitats, said Root-Gutteridge.

"If it howls, the code can extract it and we can identify it."

Follow Jennifer S. Holland on Twitter or check out her website at cuttlefishprose.com.

View the original article here

Indian Tigers Trapped in "Human Sea" Escape to Find Mates

The tiger Shere Khan was lord in Rudyard Kipling's Jungle Book, but his modern-day descendants are king no more: The big cats have seen their central Indian forests dwindle and fracture.

The remaining tigers are only surviving by moving through critical—but unprotected—corridors of land that link distant populations, a new study says.

Using hair and fecal samples, Sandeep Sharma, of the Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, and team studied genes from 273 individual tigers that live in four distinct locations within India's 17,375-square-mile (45,000-square-kilometer) Satpura-Maikal region.

Tigers once roamed across Asia from Turkey to the Russian Far East, but have vanished from over 93 percent of that range. (See tiger pictures.)

The 20th century was especially tough on the now-endangered beasts, when three subspecies became extinct, leaving six—all of which are at risk. (See a National Geographic magazine interactive of big cats in danger.)

At a glance the region's tigers seem to live in four populations, each occupying its own territory in what's called a designated tiger conservation landscape, or TCL. Those are Kanha-Phen, Pachmari-Satpura-Bori, Melghat, and Pench.

But the genetic study suggests otherwise: Corridors of woods and undeveloped land up to 125 miles (200 kilometers) long actually link Kanha and Pench into a single genetic unit, and Satpura-Melghat into a second.

That means the four populations of tigers are breeding as two much larger populations—and keeping their genetic diversity alive in the process.

Corridors also aid tiger survival on the ground, Sharma said, making the cats more likely to withstand many types of threats. (Related:"Tigers Making a Comeback in Parts of Asia.")

"If one of two connected populations drops, say because of poaching or some other factor, the other can expand and repopulate the area," he explained. But if these corridors aren't protected as wildlife habitat by the government or other entities, the land may be developed and leave the tigers in "islands."

If this happens, "eventually they are doomed."

Tiger Family Tree

Sharma and colleagues looked at the tiger population tree in the Satpura-Maikal region, which has seen dramatic declines in tiger habitat. (Read "A Cry for the Tiger" in National Geographic magazine.)

The team found two distinct periods in which tigers' genetic populations divided rapidly, and each was tied to known historical events.

"One was about 700 years ago, and that's [around] the time when Mughal invaders came into the region and they started clearing river valleys and intensified agriculture in those valleys," he said, noting that the major threat facing tigers at that time was habitat loss.

The second period was about 200 years ago, Sharma said, when the British Empire not only felled trees to fulfill its enormous need for timber, but also introduced a vast arsenal of firearms that dramatically increased the number of tigers killed by hunters.

"You can really see these two distinct patterns of genetic subdivision in this population," said Sharma, whose study appeared July 30 in Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences.

Sharma and colleagues also used their data to look back in time some 2,000 years and compare the present situation with ancient patterns of tiger gene flow.

Only tigers in those populations still connected by these corridors are maintaining similar levels of gene flow [to what] we saw historically," he explained.

In areas "that have lost the corridors, the gene flow has significantly decreased."

Living With Tigers

By illuminating the past and present the study provides a roadmap for where future conservation efforts must be focused—keeping the fragile links open between different population groups, according to the authors.

Today, however, these tiger corridors have no legal protection. They are simply forest landscapes, used by local peoples and subject to development, including mining in one of India's prime coal regions.

Earlier this year the Indian Ministry of Environment and Forests gave Coal India Limited permission for coal-mining development in the crucial Satpura-Pench wildlife corridor.

Officials stated publicly that the mine is an underground rather than open facility, and thus shouldn't interfere with the tigers' migratory corridor.

But Sharma is unconvinced, suggesting that mining brings with it settlements, roads, and infrastructure, which can be a major threat to the corridors just at the time when hard genetic data have shown that tigers are using them to travel and reproduce.

Conservationist Luke Dollar, a National Geographic Society Emerging Explorer who manages the society's Big Cats Initiative, said the tough decisions faced here are common where big cats prowl.

"India has half of all the remaining tigers on Earth, but it's also a perfect example of what we face in big-cat conservation, whether it be here or in Africa," he said. "The cats and people are colliding in a struggle for space and existence."

Dramatic Interventions

Where populations become very isolated, dramatic human interventions may be necessary to save inbred cats, Dollar added.

For instance, in 1995 Texas cougars were released to breed with and revitalize a Florida panther population so small and inbred that Dollar described them as "walking dead."

Protecting wildlife corridors is the best way to avoid such drastic measures and offers a better chance of success as well.

"In conservation it's not individuals or individual populations that we worry about if we're going to play the long game," he said.

"We worry about the overall genetic integrity of the species, which is exactly where corridors are critical as the mechanism for genetic exchange that can maintain a robust population."

"Floating in a Human Sea"

Sharma stressed that tigers need to be managed not with a myopic approach, as isolated populations, but as one big population connected by corridors.

"India has the second largest human population in the world, and these tigers are floating in a human sea," he said.

"We can't create new tiger habitat, and there is no hope outside these areas. The only hope is these corridors. If you cut them down, and fragment these populations, eventually they will only exist in history books."

View the original article here

Will Earth's Ocean Boil Away?

Venus, the hottest planet in the solar system, may have experienced runaway greenhouse effect early in its history.

Illustration by Detlev van Ravenswaay, Science Source

Robert Kunzig

National Geographic

Published July 29, 2013

In his book Storms of my Grandchildren, noted climate scientist James Hansen issued the following warning: "[I]f we burn all reserves of oil, gas, and coal, there is a substantial chance we will initiate the runaway greenhouse. If we also burn the tar sands and tar shale, I believe the Venus syndrome is a dead certainty."

Venus has a thick atmosphere that is 96.5 percent carbon dioxide, which keeps its surface at nearly 900°F (482°C). The planet's water boiled off to space long ago. Could that really happen on Earth, which is farther from the sun, and where the CO2 level is just now rising past 400 parts per million?

The key to the argument is a well-documented positive feedback loop. As carbon dioxide warms the planet through the greenhouse effect, more water evaporates from the ocean—which amplifies the warming, because water vapor is a greenhouse gas too. That positive feedback is happening now. Hansen argues that fossil-fuel burning could cause the process to run out of control, vaporizing the entire ocean and sterilizing the planet.

Respected as Hansen is, the argument hasn't convinced climate scientists who specialize in the evolution of planetary atmospheres. During the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), 56 million years ago, a huge natural spike in CO2 sent temperatures on Earth soaring—but life went on and the ocean remained intact.

"I think you can say we're still safe against the Venus syndrome," says Raymond Pierrehumbert of the University of Chicago. "If we were going to run away, we'd probably have done it during the PETM."

In the past few years, however, physicists have been training supercomputers on the lowly water molecule, calculating its properties from first principles—and finding that it absorbs more radiation at more wavelengths than they'd realized before. In a paper published this week in Nature Geosciences, those calculations have rippled into a simple climate model. The paper's conclusion contains this slightly unsettling sentence: "The runaway greenhouse may be much easier to initiate than previously thought."

National Geographic asked the lead author, Colin Goldblatt of the University of Victoria in British Columbia, to explain.

In an earlier paper, published just last year, you wrote that "it is unlikely to be possible, even in principle, to trigger a runaway greenhouse."

Yeah—and I was wrong! I was plain wrong then.

What do you say now?

It used to be thought that a runaway greenhouse was not theoretically possible for Earth with its present amount of sunlight. We've shown that, to the contrary, it is theoretically possible. That doesn't mean it's going to happen—but it's theoretically possible.

What changed?

The models we had were underestimating the amount of radiation that would be absorbed in a water-vapor-rich atmosphere.

How does that connect to the runaway greenhouse?

Going back to absolute basics—the surface of the Earth emits radiation, and some of that radiation gets absorbed in the atmosphere by gases like CO2 and water vapor. This means less radiation can get out to space than if there were no greenhouse atmosphere. Or conversely, to get the same amount of radiation out to space to balance the energy you're getting from the sun, the surface needs to be hotter. That's what's happening now: Because we're making the greenhouse effect stronger, the Earth is heating up so it will come back into balance.

Now, if you put enough water vapor in the atmosphere, any radiation from the surface will get absorbed before it gets out to space—all of it, everything. Only the upper part of the atmosphere can emit radiation to space. So it turns out there's a fixed amount of radiation you can emit to space once you have enough water vapor.

It's like if you take a layer of tinted glass—one layer, you'll be able to see through. But if you stack up 10, 20, or 100 layers, you can't see through it.

So the runaway greenhouse effect happens when the amount of incoming solar radiation exceeds this fixed limit?

Exactly. It happens when you absorb more sunlight than you can emit thermal radiation. And what I've shown here, which is new, is that the limit on how much radiation Earth can get out to space is smaller than we previously thought. And the amount of sunlight that will be absorbed in a water-vapor-rich atmosphere is bigger than we previously thought. So the implication for the Earth now is that it is possible to absorb more sunlight than you could emit to space from a water-vapor-rich atmosphere.

But your model does not consider the moderating effect of clouds.

That's correct. You start off with the simplest model you can, and then you build in complexity. We've calculated the maximum amount of sunlight Earth will absorb and the maximum amount of thermal radiation it will emit. So the next step will be to do some modeling with clouds in, which will probably modify the answers.

Clouds reflect sunlight, but if you put them high enough in the atmosphere, they'll also have a greenhouse effect. On Earth today, the reflection effect dominates—clouds overall have a cooling effect.

What does your work say about Hansen's warning?

What my results show is that if you put about ten times as much carbon dioxide in the atmosphere as you would get from burning all the coal, oil, and gas—about 30,000 parts per million—then you could cause a runaway greenhouse today. So burning all the fossil fuels won't give us a runaway greenhouse. However, the consequences will still be dire. It won't sterilize the planet, but it might topple Western civilization. There are no theoretical obstacles to that.

What does Venus teach us?

Because Venus is nearer the sun, it gets more energy from the sun than we do—it's like standing nearer the campfire. We think Venus experienced this runaway greenhouse early in its history. Venus's past is Earth's future.

The sun increases its luminosity slowly with time. At the beginning of the solar system, the sun was only 70 percent as bright as it is now. It's going to keep getting brighter. Given that the runaway greenhouse happens when there's more solar radiation absorbed than we can emit thermal radiation, it's just going to happen.

When?

In somewhere between half a billion and a billion years.

At the end of your 2012 paper, you suggested we might forestall that by moving Earth's orbit farther from the sun.

I put that in as a little joke—as a little nod to Don Korycansky, an astronomer. When Don first proposed that you could just move the Earth out with gravity assists from asteroids, he ended up on the Daily Show talking about it.

As a species we are technologically adolescent at the moment. If we get through adolescence, if we get through the next couple of hundred years alive, as a mature species who is not screwing up the planet that we live on, and then if you're talking about on timescales of hundreds of millions of years—how are we going to keep our planet alive? Then I think that's the kind of thing you might start to think about.

This interview has been edited and condensed.

View the original article here

Behind the Cover: August 2013

What better icon than a cupcake to illustrate a story about our obsession with sugar?

The simple treat has beguiled America's sweet tooth for centuries, recently inspiring a trend of specialty bakeries, food trucks, and even a reality TV series. Now the cupcake's coups also include a glamour shot on the cover of National Geographic magazine. (Read the story: "Sugar Love.")

Other contenders for the cover image included gummy treats, cotton candy, and soft-serve ice cream. But the cupcake won because it was thought to have the widest appeal, says the magazine's creative director, Bill Marr.

"We wanted a summery, easy-to-read photo of something luscious that you would just want to dive into," says Marr. "What was interesting to me—and fun—was how much disagreement there was among our staff over what makes the most mouthwatering sweet. I think it sort of comes down to your own personal history and associations."

Photographer Robert Clark describes the image's aesthetic as "kind of 1950s-'60s, Betty Crockerish." He spent many sugar-filled days working on this story in his New York City studio, and shot some three dozen different cupcakes from a Brooklyn bakery called Cupcakeland.

"It's sort of like writing—you may have to take a lot of notes until you find something that really works," says the story's photo editor, Susan Welchman.

Although some photographers "style" food with other substances—for example, a bit of petroleum jelly can make an apple appear glossier—nothing like that was done in this case, says Welchman: "I wanted everything to be real." (Clark did move some sprinkles around with tweezers, though.)

So, how many of the portrait subjects turned into snacks? Only a few, says Clark.

"You start drinking coffee and eating all this sweet stuff just because it's there, and it makes you feel awful pretty quickly," he recalls. "We ended up throwing a lot of it out." (Food pantries won't accept unpackaged goods, Welchman noted.)

This certainly isn't the first time Clark's work has been featured on the front of the magazine—he's shot 15 covers, including four different baby portraits for the May edition. (See: "Behind the Cover: May 2013.")

Photographing this story was fun, says Clark, but also a wake-up call: "It's sort of appalling to realize how much sugar we consume."

Meanwhile, our international editions didn't always stick to cupcakes, since they're not necessarily as popular abroad as they are in the United States. Foreign editions of National Geographic went for frozen yogurt, cotton candy … and, in Serbia, the sugar cubes that are liberally tossed into coffee and tea. The Indonesian edition gets a prize for the best headline: the alliterative phrase Gila Gula, or "crazy for sugar."

How do you feel about our cupcake cover—and the other cover choices? Share your answer in the comments.

View the original article here

U.S. Team Wins National Geographic World Championship

Do you know from which country the Fang people come? Here's a hint: This country's capital city is located on an island off Africa's west coast, and the national flag includes six small stars representing the mainland and five offshore islands.

If you guessed Equatorial Guinea, congratulations! You may have the brains to compete against geography geniuses from around the world.

This trivia is similar to the final questions the United States team answered to win first place at the 11th National Geographic World Championship, held Wednesday at the Russian Geographical Society in St. Petersburg, Russia.

(See "National Geographic Bee: Do You Have What It Takes?")

The victorious team defeated Canada and India in the final round; the runners-up came in second and third, respectively, after a close tiebreaker. The United States was represented by three young geography students: captain Gopi Ramanathan, 14, from Minnesota; Asha Jain, 13, from Wisconsin; and Neelam Sandhu, 14, from New Hampshire.

"It feels great. I am actually still sort of in shock right now," said Sandhu just hours after winning the championship.

"We went to a local chocolate museum in St. Petersburg to celebrate, and now we are planning on hanging out and enjoying the moment," she said.

After beating 14 other teams in preliminary activities on Sunday and Monday—a scavenger hunt around St. Petersburg and a written team test—the United States, Canada, and India advanced to the finals. Other competitors came from Australia, Bulgaria, China, Chinese Taipei, Czech Republic, Germany, Hungary, Indonesia, Mexico, Mongolia, Nigeria, Poland, Slovakia, and the United Kingdom.

Moderator Alex Trebek—also host of the television show Jeopardy!—quizzed the young geography buffs on physical, cultural, and economic geography in a game-show format.

(See "Alex Trebek: On Hosting the National Geographic Bee.")

Students on the Nigerian team participate in a scavenger hunt around St. Petersburg, one of the problem-solving tasks included in the geography World Championship.Photograph by Rebecca Hale, National Geographic

This is the sixth time the United States has taken home the gold since the first competition in 1993. Mongolia and Indonesia were first-time competitors. Russia won top honors at the last championship, held at Google's company headquarters in San Francisco in 2011.

Twenty years ago, National Geographic started the World Championship in response to concern about the lack of geographic knowledge among young people in the United States. John Fahey, chairman and CEO of the National Geographic Society, said the competition was a rewarding cross-cultural exchange.

"The competition enhances geo-literacy, international dialogue and understanding, and promotes friendships around the globe," he said. "The National Geographic World Championship competitors embody the spirit of curiosity about our planet that has defined the National Geographic Society for 125 years."

Past Winners of the National Geographic World Championship:

United States, 2013

Russia, 2011

Canada, 2009

Mexico, 2007

United States, 2005

United States, 2003

United States, 2001

United States, 1999

Canada, 1997

Australia, 1995

United States, 1993

Follow Jaclyn Skurie on Twitter.

View the original article here

Wars, Murders to Rise Due to Global Warming?

Wars, Murders to Rise Due to Global Warming? var ngs_furl="/2013/08/130801-global-warming-violence-climate-change-science-environment/", ngs_contentgroup="News|News", ngs_reportsuite="natgeonews", ngs_channel="", ngs_pagenumber="", // regex: ^/[.]*, ngs_event="", isAuthenticated = ('False' === 'True') ? true : false; dataLayer = [{ 'pageCategory': 'News|News' }];(function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='//www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-S6J5'); Skip to this page's content

Advertisement Advertisement Advertisement National Geographic Society P.O. Box 98199 Washington, DC 20090-8199 USA 38.90531943278526, -77.0376992225647 800-647-5463 CELEBRATING 125 YEARS » Search National Geographic Searchnationalgeographic.com Search NationalGeographic.com Search Video Connect: Home Daily News The Magazine Maps Science Education Games Events Blogs Movies Explorers Apps Trips Video Video Home Nat Geo TV Nat Geo Wild Animals Kids News More Photography Photography Home Photo of the Day Galleries Wallpapers Photo Tips Photographers Your Shot Buy Prints Video Newsletters Animals Animals Home Facts Photos Video Animal Conservation Environment Environment Home Energy Freshwater Global Warming Habitats Natural Disasters The Ocean Newsletters Travel Travel Home Top 10 Destinations A-Z Trip Ideas Travel Blogs Traveler Magazine Photos Video Our Trips Newsletters Adventure Adventure Home Gear Ultimate Adventurers Trip Ideas Parks Photos Video Blog Nat Geo Trips AllTrails Newsletters Television National Geographic Channel Nat Geo Wild TV Schedule Shows Video Blogs Kids Kids Home Games Videos Animals & Pets Photos Countries Fun Stuff Community News Animal Jam Little Kids Subscribe National Geographic Magazine National Geographic Kids National Geographic Little Kids National Geographic Traveler Shop Store Home Genographic Kits Best Sellers New Kids Shop Gift Finder Channel Shop Sale Shop by Catalog Email Signup National Geographic Daily News HomeAnimalsAncientEnergyEnvironmentTravel/CulturesSpace/TechWaterWeirdNews PhotosNews VideoNews Blogs Wars, Murders to Rise Due to Global Warming?Shifts in temperature and rainfall linked to more aggression, study says.

An acid attack victim in Karachi, Pakistan. A new study suggests that such violence increases with abnormal temperatures.

Photograph by Izabella Demavlys, Redux

Ker Than

for National Geographic

Published August 1, 2013

Wars, murders, and other acts of violence will likely become more commonplace in coming decades as the effects of global warming cause tempers to flare worldwide, a comprehensive new study warns.

The research, detailed in this week's issue of the journal Science, synthesizes findings scattered across diverse fields ranging from archaeology to economics to paint a clearer picture of how global warming-related shifts in temperature and rainfall could fuel acts of aggression.

Though scientists don't know exactly why global warming increases violence, the findings suggest that it's another major fallout of human-made climate change, in addition to rising sea levels and increased heat waves.

"This study shows that the value of reducing [greenhouse gas] emissions is actually higher than we previously thought," said study first author Solomon Hsiang, an economist at Princeton University in New Jersey. (Related: "Global Warming Making People More Aggressive?")

Leveling the Field

To perform their analysis, Hsiang and his colleagues sifted through hundreds of studies published across a number of fields, including climatology, archaeology, economics, political science, and psychology.

"[As economists], we were way out of our comfort zone," Hsiang said. "It's been quite an interesting experience. I've never done anything like this before."

The team eventually settled on 60 studies on subjects related to climate, conflict, temperature, violence, crime, and more, and reanalyzed those studies' data using a common statistical framework. An analogy would be converting currencies from different European countries into the euro so that meaningful comparisons could be made.

They did this to account for the fact that different parts of the world experience different variabilities in temperature and rainfall. For example, an increase of 2°F (1.1°C) might not be a big deal in the United States, where temperatures can vary widely, but it might be unusual for a country in Africa.

When the team converted the data and compared them, the results were striking: They found that even relatively minor departures from normal temperatures or rainfall amounts substantially increased the risk of conflict on a variety of levels, ranging from individual aggression, such as murder and rape, to country-level political instability and international wars.

The study data covered all major regions of the world and different time spans as well, from hours and years to decades and centuries. Across the data, the researchers found similar patterns of human aggression fueled by climate factors.

Examples included spikes in domestic violence in India and Australia, increased assaults and murders in the United States and Tanzania, ethnic violence in Europe and South Asia, land invasions in Brazil, and police using force in the Netherlands.

Ancient Insights

The effect wasn't limited to just modern societies, either. Among the research Hsiang and his team looked at was a study that linked increased political instability and warfare in the ancient Maya civilization around A.D. 900 to prolonged droughts brought about by global warming-related climate shifts in lands near the Pacific Ocean. (Related: "Why the Maya Fell: Climate Change, Conflict—And a Trip to the Beach?")

"That's when the classical period of Mayan civilization ends," said study co-author Edward Miguel, a professor of economics at the University of California, Berkeley.

Another study linked the 14th-century collapse of Cambodia's ancient Khmer civilization, which built the temple of Angkor Wat, to decades of drought interspersed with intense monsoon rains.

"Archaeologists can actually observe how [Khmer] engineers were trying to adapt," Hsiang said. "They were trying to keep up with the climatic changes, but in the end, even though they were the most sophisticated water engineers in the region at the time, it still seemed too much."

Hsiang says his team included these historic case studies in their analysis in order to understand how populations adapted—or didn't—to the kinds of gradual climate changes that climatologists predict for the future. But he thinks there are also lessons to be learned from the past.

"A lot of the civilizations that were nailed by climatic shifts were the most advanced societies in their region or on the planet during their day, and they probably felt they could cope with anything," he said.

"I think we should have some humility [and] recognize that people in the past were very innovative and they were trying to adapt to these changes as well."

Why Does Warming Make People Mad?

Brad Bushman, a professor of communication and psychology at Ohio State University who specializes in human aggression and violence, called the study "impressive."

"The convergence of findings across so many different disciplines increases your confidence that you've got a pretty reliable effect here," said Bushman, who was not involved in the research.

"Hopefully, this study will increase awareness that climate change spans many different domains of human activity, including conflict." (See "6 Ways Climate Change Will Affect You.")

While the new study helps strengthens the case for climate change influencing human aggression, it was not designed to address the question of why it does.

Other scientists have speculated on possible mechanisms. For example, Bushman thinks dramatic changes in temperature and rainfall are unpleasant and naturally make people more cranky. "When people are in a cranky mood, they're more likely to behave aggressively," he said.

Another theory is that too much or too little rain can negatively affect a country's agriculture and lead to economic ruin.

"When individuals have very low income or the economy of the region collapses, that changes people's incentives to take part in various activities," study first author Hsiang said. And "one activity they could take part in is joining a militant group."

The team thinks researchers will eventually discover that multiple mechanisms are at play simultaneously.

Hsiang compared modern scientists studying the relationship between climate and aggression to medical doctors in the 1930s who knew that smoking and lung cancer were linked but had not yet uncovered the mechanism.

"It took decades, but people did eventually figure out what was going on, and that helped us design policies and institutions to help mitigate the harmful effects [of smoking]," Hsiang said.

Similarly, co-author Miguel said, pinning down the mechanisms behind how global warming affects aggression will be the "next key frontier" for this area of research.

Follow Ker Than on Twitter.

More » (function() { var a=this;var b,c,d,e,f;function g(){return a.navigator?a.navigator.userAgent:null}f=e=d=c=b=!1;var h;if(h=g()){var i=a.navigator;b=0==h.indexOf("Opera");c=!b&&-1!=h.indexOf("MSIE");e=(d=!b&&-1!=h.indexOf("WebKit"))&&-1!=h.indexOf("Mobile");f=!b&&!d&&"Gecko"==i.product}var j=c,k=f,l=d,m=e;var n;if(b&&a.opera){var o=a.opera.version;"function"==typeof o&&o()}else k?n=/rv\:([^\);]+)(\)|;)/:j?n=/MSIE\s+([^\);]+)(\)|;)/:l&&(n=/WebKit\/(\S+)/),n&&n.exec(g());var p=document,q=p.createElement("link");q.rel="stylesheet";q.type="text/css";q.href="http://zor.fyre.co/wjs/v3.0/css/livefyre_"+(m?"mobile":"embed")+".css";q.media="all";p.getElementsByTagName("head")[0].appendChild(q);var r="header hgroup footer article section aside nav figure figcaption embed audio video canvas details summary time mark".split(" "),s=p.createDocumentFragment(),t;for(t=0; t  Get Livefyre FAQ Sign in + Follow Post comment   Link Newest | Oldest

John Morrison 5pts

The term scientist and researcher is be used very loosely.

mike egeler 5pts

Well, all the ostriches  have pulled their heads out of the sand to migrate to an article about a well researched study on increased violence due to climate change on many levels. If you actually read different views other than FOX "news" you might be able to contribute to an intelligent conversation about the climate change debate. You are always the 20% that don't have a clue...about anything. You follow the 3% of "scientists" that have absolutely no background in climate or environmental sciences. So they're spewing out what you want to believe, not what you don't want to hear. 

The 3% "scientists" are corporate funded! Petroleum, coal burning electric plants, auto industry; Corporations that don't want anything to change. We are importing Tar Sand from Canada that has twice the CO2 emission of the oil we're using (it was an entire train that derailed in Canada last week that was hauling Tar Sand to the US). 

So, go back to your holes, hot-wired with FOX, and wait for the next migration to a "liberal" climate change article so you can once again just leave your droppings.

mike egeler 5pts 1 Like

Well, all the ostriches  have pulled their heads out of the sand to migrate to an article about a well researched study on increased violence due to climate change on many levels. If you actually read different views other than FOX "news" you might be able to contribute to an intelligent conversation about the climate change debate. You are always the 20% that don't have a clue...about anything. You follow the 3% of "scientists" that have absolutely no background in climate or environmental sciences. So they're spewing out what you want to believe, not what you don't want to hear. 

The 3% "scientists" are corporate funded! Petroleum, coal burning electric plants, auto industry; Corporations that don't want anything to change. We are importing Tar Sand from Canada that has twice the CO2 emission of the oil we're using (it was an entire train that derailed in Canada last week that was hauling Tar Sand to the US). 

So, go back to your holes, hot-wired with FOX, and wait for the next migration to a "liberal" climate change article so you can once again just leave your droppings.

Donnie McBee 5pts

@mike egeler And 95% of climate scientist are government stooges!  Without a crisis, they get no money!

Chris Crawford 5pts

@Donnie McBee And what about the citizens of just about every developed country in the world, the majority of Americans, every single scientific institution that has any bearing on the subject, the US military, insurance companies, state governments, agribusiness companies, shipping companies, and all the other institutions that have some kind of stake in this? Are THEY all government stooges, too?

Conwaythe Contaminationist 5pts 2 Like

Who is the editor of this vile propaganda rag - Goebbels?

Donnie McBee 5pts 2 Like

Not much to say here, just ANOTHER crap piece from national geographic!

Why not create a opinion area so people wont think this is factual!

Andrew Allison 5pts 3 Like

Yet another utterly irresponsible, and inaccurate "news" story from NGS. Note first that, "The research, detailed in this week's issue of the journal Science, synthesizes findings scattered across diverse fields ranging from archaeology to economics to paint a clearer picture of how global warming-related shifts in temperature and rainfall COULD fuel acts of aggression." and segues right into "Though scientists don't know exactly why global warming increases violence,. . ."

Where's the evidence of an increase in violence? Given that global temperatures have been at recorded highs for the past 16 years, there should be evidence to justify the hypothesis. Absent any evidence, it's just another climate change scare story. By the way, there's been no increase in extreme weather events, and no increase in hurricane frequency or intensity, during the past century (NOAA has the data). The fact that there has been a huge increase in the cost of these events has nothing to do with climate change and everything to do with increased population and infrastructure.

Interestingly, anthropomorphic emissions are currently 35% higher and increasing more than twice as fast as in 1997, when global warming came to a screeching halt (in other words, more than a quarter of all anthropomorphic have occurred since then). Note that this is not "could", but actual measured data. Unhappily for AGW hysterics like the NGS, not only have global temperatures not increased by a statistically significant amount since 1997, but the average temperature for each of the past four year has been LOWER than the average for the entire period. Doesn't this suggest to a rational mind that the projection of the HADCRUT4 data that global temperature is trending DOWN is correct?

AGW hysterics will respond either by denying the unimpeachable data or insisting that 16 years isn't long enough to establish a trend; to which I respond in advance that NOAA says that 15 years is long enough, and that AGW hysteria is based on a 20 year warming trend which, as noted above, came to a screeching halt in 1997. If 16 years isn't long enough to establish a trend, 20 years isn't either.

The fact is that global temperature is at the 95% probability lower bound of the AGW models, and appears to be falling. Simply put, the models have been shown by events to be rubbish.

Chris Crawford 5pts

@Andrew Allison Have you actually read the paper in question? Or even the abstract? Have you looked at any of the author's earlier work on the same subject?

You are entirely too quick to condemn something you haven't even seen. I suggest that your condemnation cannot possibly be based on a scientific analysis of the paper, and is instead based on  your political prejudices.

You claim that 'NOAA says that 15 years is long enough'. I suggest that you are twisting what NOAA actually said. Moreover, if you look at the definition of climate as established by the World Meteorological Society some eighty years ago, you'll find that 30 years is considered the minimum time necessary to establish a pattern as part of climate. Moreover, if  you know anything about physics and the heat capacity of the ocean, you'd know that 15 years is nowhere near enough time to establish a long-term trend. Besides, why cherry-pick the data? Why not look at ALL the evidence? If you do so, and look at sea level rise, at glacier retreat, at loss of Arctic sea ice, and a dozen other phenomena, you see the same pattern. The earth is warming.

You are wrong in multiple dimensions.

Donnie McBee 5pts 1 Like

@Chris Crawford Ask yourself one question. ok?

Has any of the climate models been accurate, even for 30 years?  Sadly the answer is NO! 

Here is another quote for you,"garbage in, garbage out".  I consider climate science mostly garbage!

Chris Crawford 5pts

@Donnie McBee @Chris Crawford So you have one quote from one scientist in a newsmagazine, and I have thousands of scientific papers published by thousands of scientists. Honestly, do you really think that you have a rational basis for accepting the words of that single scientist?

As to a good civil debate, I am usually rather harsh with deniers because they are often dishonest, but I would love the opportunity to pursue our differences in a thorough and civil manner.

Donnie McBee 5pts

@Chris Crawford @Donnie McBee

"They've done a pretty good job. You've been getting bad data."  I think you have bad data!

In an interview with the German news publication Der Spiegel, meteorologist Hans von Storch said that scientists are so puzzled by the 15-year standstill in global warming that if the trend continues their models could be “fundamentally wrong.”

“If things continue as they have been, in five years, at the latest, we will need to acknowledge that something is fundamentally wrong with our climate models,” Storch told Der Spiegel. “A 20-year pause in global warming does not occur in a single modeled scenario. But even today, we are finding it very difficult to reconcile actual temperature trends with our expectations.”

I have researched climate change, probably more than the scientist!   

FYI  I love a good civil debate!

Chris Crawford 5pts

@Donnie McBee @Chris Crawford Perhaps you are unaware of the performance of the climate models. You can find an actual scientific assessment of the most common models here:

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2013/02/2012-updates-to-model-observation-comparions/

They've done a pretty good job. You've been getting bad data.

Conwaythe Contaminationist 5pts 2 Like

@Chris Crawford 

And you are brainwashed by the Goebbelsian media.

T S 5pts 2 Like

This is a very misleading article with a picture that twists the original words of the researchers into a direction they never intended.

The picture shows a woman after an acid attack at the hands of religious fundamentalists.

These fundamentalists have been around for centuries, maiming and terrorizing women who did not live by their rules is standard practice.

And this article provides a pathetic excuse for the behavior of these animals

Bob Lee 5pts 1 Like

Actually, the human violence component is simpler to explain:  Serum testosterone levels increases with rising ambient temperature: More testosterone, the more likely male aggressive violence will occur.  Evidence is clear from human birth records which show seasonal peaks due to impregnation during warm summer months in both hemispheres: Hence, June weddings are favored in the Northern Hemisphere. The more heat, the more aggressive the behavior: Redirecting the behavior to socially acceptable organized violence is actually key: Hence organized sports.  Major amateur and professional sports programs enabling literally billions of males to exercise higher testosterone levels may be required social policy.  The other alternative is military training at unprecedented levels. The other alternative is drug intervention with synthetic steroids such as Depo-Provera, which is commonly used as a female contraceptive, but is also used as a sex-drive depressant for known sex offenders, usually under US court orders requiring "chemical castration". One other alternative is allowing mass migration to more temperate latitudes.  It is no accident that the "Arab revolutions" have occurred during months with high ambient temperatures, and are frequently associated with a peak in violence against women.

Nate Whilk 5pts

If Homer Simpson read all the articles about possible effects attributed to global warming, I'm sure he'd say, "Global warming--is there ANYTHING it can't do?"

@Bob Lee wrote, "One other alternative is allowing mass migration to more temperate latitudes." So when are you getting the first group of refugees in your neighborhood?

@Bob Lee wrote, "Evidence is clear from human birth records which show seasonal peaks due to impregnation during warm summer months in both hemispheres: Hence, June weddings are favored in the Northern Hemisphere."

It couldn't possibly be that impregnation is affected by other factors, could it? As far as a June wedding goes, that's actually to avoid the discomfort of a pregnancy in the heat of summer. (I have as much evidence for this as you do for your assertion.)

@Bob Lee wrote, "Serum testosterone levels increases with rising ambient temperature"

On the first page of google results for "higher temperature more testosterone" (without quotes) we get a study of north Norway men which says "Lowest testosterone levels occurred in months with the highest temperatures and longest hours of daylight. [...] The variations in hormone levels were large, with a 31% difference between the lowest and highest monthly mean level of free testosterone." http://jcem.endojournals.org/content/88/7/3099.long

We also get this: in rams, testosterone decreased in higher temperatures. PDF: http://www.journalofanimalscience.org/content/33/4/804.full.pdf

So, Bob, do you really have ANY idea of what you're talking about, not to mention your alarming suggestion of using Depo-provera?

Bruce Lancaster 5pts 1 Like

Well... thank God there has been zero global warming the last 15 years or we'd be in trouble, eh?  Hans Von Storch started talking about his data and report due to the UN next year.  Global warming has been "a number close to zero" for fifteen years.  In fact .06 degrees...  Yeah.  You read that right.  point zero six degrees of warming over the last fifteen years. 

Chris Crawford 5pts 1 Like

@Bruce Lancaster Of course, sea level has continued to rise, Arctic sea ice has continued to fall, ice loss in Antarctica has increased, glaciers all over the world have retreated, extreme weather such as droughts and hurricanes have become much more destructive, forest fires have increased in size, and ocean heat content has continued to rise. 

But you're willing to stake it all on one number that covers a span of time too short to qualify as 'climate'. 

Conwaythe Contaminationist 5pts 1 Like

@Chris Crawford @Bruce Lancaster Kindly  how us where it has an anthropogenic cause, using empirical evidence, not conjecture..

Chris Crawford 5pts

@Donnie McBee @Chris Crawford @Conwaythe Contaminationist @Bruce Lancaster I did not accuse Mr. Spencer of being a quack, I wrote that his writings are full of easily exposed falsehoods. The fact that some Republicans invited him to testify does not establish any credentials.

Donnie McBee 5pts

@Chris Crawford @Donnie McBee @Conwaythe Contaminationist @Bruce Lancaster 

If he is such a quack, why was he testifying at the Senate EPW hearing on climate change on July 19,2013?  Do they let all quacks testify at Senate hearings?

http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/Spencer_EPW_Written_Testimony_7_18_2013_updated.pdf

Chris Crawford 5pts

@Donnie McBee @Chris Crawford @Conwaythe Contaminationist @Bruce Lancaster I'm sorry, Mr. McBee, but I have sampled Mr. Spencer's writings on numerous occasions and it is entirely too easy to expose his falsehoods. Mr. Watts' blog is the only denier blog I have seen that includes ANY kind of scientifically competent commentary -- and that commentary is usually marred by distortions or falsehoods.

As to my reading, it includes IPCC AR4 WG1, and I regularly follow the discussions -- not just the articles, but the discussions as well -- at realclimate.org. I also read many of the important scientific literature on critical subjects. More important, I *understand* much of that literature!

Donnie McBee 5pts

@Chris Crawford @Conwaythe Contaminationist @Bruce Lancaster Chris. have you done any reading yet?

Donnie McBee 5pts

@Chris Crawford @Conwaythe Contaminationist @Bruce Lancaster

Chis, please read just a little?

http://www.drroyspencer.com/

Chris Crawford 5pts

@Conwaythe Contaminationist @Chris Crawford @Bruce Lancaster There's mountains of evidence: thermal gradients in the atmosphere as well as thermal gradients in the oceans demonstrate that the source of the heating is in the atmosphere itself. 

And by the way, what you call 'conjecture', scientists call 'laws of nature'. If you believe that the laws of nature don't apply, then don't take any modern medicines, get on any aircraft, use GPS systems, or just about anything else technological, because they're ALL based on the laws of nature.

Bruce Lancaster 5pts 4 Like

@Chris Crawford @Bruce Lancaster -  Ripley says arctic ice is shrinking - Bellowitz says it is expanding.  Forsyth says extreme weather events are related - Plesco says they're not.....  The current cooling trend is because of volcanoes (as if those didn't exist before 2010) - and there's less acid rain... or more acid rain... but at least the holes in the ozone are shrinking.... unless they haven't and have just moved north...   It's hard to judge anything when none of these guys can agree.  What I do know for sure is this:  Leading climate scientists colluded to silence anyone who offered data that didn't fit their narrative a couple of years ago.  They discouraged peer review - they pressured publishers to refrain from publishing authors who disagreed with them - and they engaged in smear campaigns.  They got caught and their emails published.  That's what I know for sure.  The people selling you and me global warming lied, cheated, stole, and engaged in conspiracy.  

Donnie McBee 5pts

@Chris Crawford @Donnie McBee @Bruce Lancaster For one IPCC statement on the melting of Himalayan glaciers is completely false!

Chris Crawford 5pts

@Donnie McBee @Chris Crawford @Bruce Lancaster Mr. McBee, did you know that Mr. Glantz is not a climatologist; in fact, he's not even a physical scientist! He's a social scientist, and therefore has no basis to make any scientific pronouncements on climate change. Moreover, his claim to have been fired from NCAR for failure to toe the line is flatly refuted by the fact that the Bush Administration terminated funding for NCAR -- see this:

http://www.climatesciencewatch.org/2008/08/08/abrupt-termination-of-nsf-funded-climate-humanitarian-program-raises-fundamental-questions/

They did not fire Mr. Glantz per se, they terminated funding for the entire unit that he headed. For him to claim that it was due to political factors -- when they never replaced him or his group -- is not honest.

So you still have not provided evidence of any conspiracy to shut down adversarial discussion in the scientific literature, and certainly nothing at all related to the stolen emails, which provided the original basis of your accusation.

You also aver that you have studied climate science extensively. Have you read IPCC AR4 WG1? If so, is there anything in that document that you find false?

Donnie McBee 5pts

@Chris Crawford @Donnie McBee @Bruce Lancaster

94-year-old Ken Hechler, the legendary West Virginia congressman and coal miner hero who has been battling mountaintop removal since 1971 was arrested in a non-violent protest with NASA’s celebrated climate scientist James Hansen, actress Daryl Hannah, Michael Brune, the executive director of Rainforest Action Network, and Goldman Prize winner Judy Bonds. Vietnam veteran Bo Webb, and dozens of other coalfield residents were arrested by crossing onto the property of leading mountaintop removal coal mining company, Massey Energy–purposely trespassing to protest the destruction of mountains immediately above the Coal River Valley community.

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2009/06/23/204278/james-hansen-top-us-climate-scientists-arrested-protest-on-mountaintop-removal/

Donnie McBee 5pts

@Chris Crawford @Donnie McBee @Bruce Lancaster

I have several emails from Mickey, plus several other scientist!  I used to be the biggest climate change person on earth!  Until climate gate, I read the emails, all the emails!  They lied, the conspired to keep any evidence denying climate change from being published, I emailed climate scientist, and even met Hanson at a MTR protest, "and watched him get arrested, which I found hilarious!   Even I know better to trespass on mine companies property!  I even watched them stuff Goldie Hawn into a police car!  LOL

I despise MTR!

Donnie McBee 5pts

@Chris Crawford @Donnie McBee @Bruce Lancaster

complete email 

"thanks for noting my comment on how so called peer review is used. 

 the climate gate situation really goes well beyond the set of emails. i

 have met scientists from ipcc who are super arrogant. there needs to be turn

 over in the ipcc.

 finally, i am no longer at ncar. i was fired from there in august 2008, i

 suspect for reasons related to not towing the line on 'selling science' to

 the public. my goal was to share and explain the science, certainties and

 uncertainties.

 regards, mickey glantz

Chris Crawford 5pts

@Donnie McBee @Chris Crawford @Bruce Lancaster So your evidence consists of a personal anecdote that is conveniently unverifiable? Sorry, I'm not THAT gullible! It's pretty clear that  you have zero real evidence to support your accusation, and that you're just making it all up.

Donnie McBee 5pts 1 Like

@Chris Crawford @Bruce Lancaster

Chris,  I see you are dedicated to your cause.

I have spoke with scientist at NCAR, also with scientist that went to Copenhagen in 2007

Here is a quote from a email with one of those scientist.

"the climate gate situation really goes well beyond the set of emails. i

have met scientists from ipcc who are super arrogant. there needs to be turn

over in the ipcc.

finally, i am no longer at ncar. i was fired from there in august 2008, i

suspect for reasons related to not towing the line on 'selling science' to

the public."

Here is another quote "thanks for noting my comment on how so called peer review is used." Notice the wording? "so-called peer review"    See what happens to climate scientist who do not tow the line on climate change?

Chris Crawford 5pts

@Bruce Lancaster @Chris Crawford You're quite mistaken if you think that there's serious disagreement on the basics of climate change. For every denier scientist you can list, there are at least 30 who will contradict him. So you list one denier and one supporter and call it confusion. I'd say that you are the one confusing a clear matter.

And you are making a false accusation when you claim that "Leading climate scientists colluded to silence anyone who offered data that didn't fit their narrative a couple of years ago." I challenge you to present one case -- just one -- of a scientific paper that was refused publication because of such a conspiracy. You can't, of course, because it never happened. You're making it up.

Chris Crawford 5pts 1 Like

I think it important to differentiate between spontaneous violence and organized violence. The former consists of violent crimes and riots; the latter is war. It has long been known that there's a solid concomitance between temperature and these crimes: higher temperatures promote it, and lower temperatures inhibit it.

War, on the other hand, is often driven by resource issues, and here the picture is complicated. As others have pointed out, there will be winners and losers. Canada and Siberia will likely be winners; many countries in the Sahel and along the coast will be losers. When Country X can justify its aggression with the argument that it is merely leveling a playing field that was originally tilted by Country Y, you've got a high likelihood of war.

John Bailo 5pts 1 Like

Gee, Napoleon in Russia was pretty bloody.

And what about the record rainfall in New Mexico?  Isn't that a good thing?

John Bailo 5pts 1 Like

Gee, Napoleon in Russia was pretty bloody.

And what about the record rainfall in New Mexico?  Isn't that a good thing?

Janet Weeks V 5pts

Bite global warming: live vegan! http://www.greenyourdiet.org/

Jordan Henkel 5pts 2 Like

I did a report in college on studies that suggested the renaissance was caused by a 1 degree tempeture increase because it made conditions more favorable for agriculture and thus happier people in civilizations. It sounds like they are lacking a lot of quatitative data on this subject.

Daniel Stoner 5pts 1 Like

Well, the answer is, of course! But not so much because "tempers flare" - that's a small component.  The LARGE component is what wars are always fought for - land / resources... WHEN the billions of acres of tundra / permafrost unfreezes across Siberia and Canada, allowing this land to be good ag (grazing & crop) land, and "living on" land, you bet your azz China is going to try to "annex" in one way or another Mongolia and parts of Russia, as but one example..and if hydrocarbons are found and much easier to access in those places without the permafrost, then it will be even worse.   Then you've also got the factors of the rainfall / precip winners and losers consequential to GW - the losers (drier areas) will need more water for ag irrigation and everything else, and will seek access to land with water on it, not to mention domestic unrest by farmers and others in new-drought areas.  But all of this massive conflict will pale in comparison to the chaos which is coming when oil, nat gas, and coal get REALLY scarce in about 75-100 years.  World War II times 10, I think.  Maybe if it happens all about the same time, we can just get the violence over with.  A couple billion will die, but after adjusting to the new climate and energy-low lifestyles, there is actually great potential for an unprecedented peace era, in my view.

Clayton Turner 5pts 1 Like

Of course We are all going to die and horrible death and we did it to ourselves by using fossil fuels and living fat celebrity lives.  We are the problem.  We should just all kill ourselves now and get it over with.

William Cody 5pts 1 Like

Funny same thing was said of the "Little Ice Age": the Mongol invasion, 30 years War, Manchu invasion of China..., add famines and plagues and one could argue warmer is better .

Powered by Livefyre Share

Email

More »

News Video Portable Scanners "Read" Brains

New Blacktip Reef Exhibit Opens

The Tortoise and the Solar Plant

The Corpse Flower: Behind the Stink

The Birth of a Tornado

See All News Video »

Latest News Kobi the Chimp Retires

Q&A: How Autopilot Works

Top 10: Sex Selection, Iceberg Sounds

Mexico Volcano Pictures

Moths Shake Genitals to Avoid Bats

Coal-Burning Shortens Lives in China

Roswell Celebrates Anniversary

4 Sky Events This Week

Canada Tragedy Spotlights Oil Trains

Migrants Leave Traces in the Desert

Improving 3-D Printing

Solar Plane's Mission Ending

China's Last Gunslingers

Washington’s Other Monuments

Earth Farthest From Sun Friday

Egyptian Military’s Historical Role

Space Pictures This Week

Physics of Waterslides

Picture Archive: Fourth of July

Responding to Shark Attacks

Pictures: Lady Liberty—Rare Views

5 Natural Air-Conditioning Designs

60 Billion Exoplanets?

Trending News Brain-Eating Amoebas

CDC scientist says infection risk for water parasite Naegleria fowleri remains low, despite Arkansas girl's illness.

Cities Expose Long-Buried Rivers

Explore "Daylighting," the Latest Trend in Urban Renewal

Name This Fish, Win Prize

Submit a name for this colorful fish, and you could win a trip to the Galápagos.

Advertisement Celebrating 125 Years Explore: Transit

See how transportation has changed over 125 years.

The Soul of Coffee

Reza shines light on the lives of coffee workers across the world.

ScienceBlogs Picks On Curiosity and its Shadows

On Curiosity and its Shadows

Seeds for Change: The Need for Stress Tolerant Crops in Central America

Seeds for Change: The Need for Stress Tolerant Crops in Central America

Vaccinate Your Pets #2

Vaccinate Your Pets #2

Connect With Nat Geo Got Something to Share? E-mail Us at Newsdesk@ngs.org Send Us Your Photos Special Ad Section .subsection > div.primary > div.ecommerce-section, .subsection > div.secondary > div.ecommerce-section { margin-top: 0px; border-top: 0px none; padding-top: 0px; } Shop National Geographic SHOP NOW »

Great Energy Challenge Blog Preparing for the Zombie Apocalypse: Are Microgrids Our Only Chance? In Tumultuous Egypt, Fuel Subsidy Reform Is Inevitable More Green Energy Equals More Green-Car Buying What Breakthroughs Do Biofuels Need? As U.S. Plans $7 Billion Effort to Electrify Africa, It Faces Challenges at Home More From National Geographic Help Save the Colorado River

Exploring the Deep

Pictures: Unspoiled Rivers

Pictures: Dolphins and Whales Hunted

"Doomsday" Vault Safeguards Seeds

Shipping Container Homes

Sustainable Earth

Photos: The Unseen Titanic

Your Texas Photos

Why the Mariana Trench Is So Deep

11 Rivers Forced Underground

National Geographic Home » News » Wars, Murders to Rise Due to Global Warming? Home Video Photography Animals Environment Travel Adventure Television Kids Shop Daily News The Magazine Maps Science & Space Education Games Events Blogs Movies Explorers Mobile Site Index Magazine Subscriptions Buy Prints Stock Footage Stock Photos Our Trips Newsletters Jobs Global Sites Sustainability About Contact Gifts DVD's Books Maps & Globes Sale Travel Gear Photography Gear Donate Press Room Customer Service Advertise With Us Terms of Service Privacy Policy © 1996-2013 National Geographic Society. All rights reserved.

(function(s, p, d) { var h=d.location.protocol, i=p+"-"+s, e=d.getElementById(i), r=d.getElementById(p+"-root"), u=h==="https:"?"d1z2jf7jlzjs58.cloudfront.net" :"static."+p+".com"; if (e) return; e = d.createElement(s); e.id = i; e.async = true; e.src = h+"//"+u+"/p.js"; r.appendChild(e); })("script", "parsely", document);.recommendation {border-top: 10px solid #044E8E; border-left: 1px solid #044E8E; background: #FFF;}.recommendationThumb, .recommendationThumb a img{width: 50px; height: auto;}.recommendationTitle {color: #044E8E; padding-left: 2px;} .recommendation a {color: #044E8E;}.recommendationCategory {color: #999; padding-bottom: 5px;}.closeRecommendation {color: #999;}.recommendationFooter a {display: none;}

View the original article here